China’s Population Declines for Third Consecutive Year

China’s population has decreased for the third consecutive year, as reported on Friday by Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics. The figure for 2024 stood at 1.408 billion, down from 1.410 billion in 2023. This decline extends a demographic downturn following over six decades of consistent growth.

In 2023, India surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation. In response, Beijing introduced incentives and pro-fertility campaigns to combat declining birth rates, but these measures have yet to reverse the trend.

The drop in population for 2024 was less significant compared to 2023, which experienced a decline more than twice that of 2022. Despite ending the one-child policy in 2016 and allowing couples to have up to three children in 2021, China’s efforts to boost its population growth have fallen short. Rising living costs, increased female participation in the workforce, and higher education aspirations are cited as major reasons for the sustained decline in birth rates.

Experts predict the population decline will continue due to economic challenges faced by younger generations and ongoing gender discrimination in the labor market. Yun Zhou, a sociologist at the University of Michigan, noted that these factors compound the issue, with people over 60 expected to account for nearly one-third of China’s population by 2035.

New data revealed that by the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above reached 310.31 million, just under a quarter of the total population and an increase from 297 million in 2023. However, the birth rate showed a slight rise to 6.77 per 1,000 people, attributed to delayed childbirth during the pandemic and a surge in marriages in 2023 and 2024, the Year of the Dragon.

Despite this temporary uptick, experts like Zhao Litao of the National University of Singapore emphasize that the long-term trends of declining births, population contraction, and rapid aging remain unchanged. Independent demographer He Yafu warned that without robust pro-natal policies, the proportion of the elderly population will continue to rise.

To address the aging workforce, officials announced plans in September to gradually raise the retirement age, previously set at 60—one of the lowest globally. The updated rules took effect on January 1, reflecting a shift from the days of scarcity and poverty when the original retirement age was implemented.

As the world’s second-largest economy, China now faces the dual challenges of slower economic growth and increased pressure on its pension and public health systems, driven by an aging population and falling birth rates.