Nigeria could be heading toward a severe fuel shortage and sharp price hikes, with pump prices potentially reaching N1,000 per litre, due to rising Middle East tensions and a brewing tanker drivers’ strike.
On Sunday, Dangote Refinery announced the rollout of 4,000 new compressed natural gas (CNG)-powered fuel tankers, a move seen as a major shift that could render many existing operators and aging articulated vehicles obsolete.
At the same time, the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO) has declared its intention to cease lifting petroleum products from the refinery starting Monday, June 16, 2025, in response to a dispute with the Lagos State Government.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s crude oil producers exported products worth N12.96 trillion in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, amid a backdrop of global volatility. This coincides with reports of an estimated $5.7 billion loss from production shortfalls in the first five months of the year—suggesting that local refineries may need to ramp up imports to maintain operations in the face of rising prices and international supply challenges.
This export figure represents a N2.53 trillion (16.34%) decline compared to Q1 2024 figures of N15.49 trillion, and a N828 billion (6.01%) drop from Q4 2024’s N13.78 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The NBS added that crude oil accounted for 62.89% of Nigeria’s total export value in Q1 2025, with total exports valued at N20.6 trillion.
Global oil prices jumped over 10% last Friday as tensions in the Middle East escalated. Brent crude gained more than eight per cent, with intraday increases as high as 13%, following Iran’s missile attacks on Israel in retaliation for Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities.
In a bid to cushion fuel supply challenges, Dangote Refinery announced a new credit facility: customers purchasing at least 500,000 litres will be granted access to an additional 500,000 litres on credit, repayable within two weeks and backed by a bank guarantee.
The refinery stated that this initiative is designed to revive dormant fuel stations, create jobs, empower SMEs, boost government revenue, enhance fuel availability in rural areas, and build investor confidence in Nigeria’s downstream sector.
In a related development, NARTO National President Lawal Othman explained that the strike was triggered by a Lagos State Government directive imposing a N12,500 E-Call Up System for trucks operating along the Lekki–Epe Corridor.
Despite ongoing talks, no consensus was reached on NARTO’s proposal of N2,500 per truck, which the association deems more appropriate given the current economic climate.
“We appreciate your cooperation and urge all members to remain united and vigilant as we continue to engage the Lagos State Government in pursuit of a fair and sustainable outcome,” the statement said.
Othman confirmed that, effective June 16, 2025, NARTO transporters will stop truck programming along the corridor until a fair resolution is reached, potentially disrupting operations connected to Dangote Refinery.
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