Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) looked ready to gain a clear victory in a regional election in the small western state of Saarland on Sunday, helping Chancellor Olaf Scholz consolidate his grip on power ahead of other regional votes this year.
The first regional vote since the SPD unexpectedly won the federal election last year looked set to provide another boost to the center-left party, beating the conservatives after 16 years of Angela Merkel in power.
An exit poll by Infratest dimap put the SPD at 43% of the vote, up 13 percentage points compared to the last vote, while the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) slumped to 27.5%. The two parties have ruled Saarland in a conservative-led so-called “grand coalition” since 2012.
State elections in Germany are important bellwethers for the public mood. Recent opinion polls have shown the ruling coalition of Scholz’s SPD, environmentalist Greens and liberal Free Democrats (FDP) cementing its popularity.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted the coalition to promise more military spending and to shift Germany away from energy dependence on Russia, ratings have risen for Scholz and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock from the Greens.
Regional elections also help to determine the distribution of votes in the Bundesrat upper house of parliament, although Saarland does not have much weight in the second chamber given it has only around a million inhabitants.
Moreover voters there are especially motivated by local issues such as concerns about high unemployment and the popularity of regional SPD leader Anke Rehlinger.
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