Guinea-Bissau’s Embaló Faces Tight Contest As Vote Counting Continues

Vote counting is underway in Guinea-Bissau following Sunday’s presidential and legislative elections, with President Umaro Sissoco Embaló locked in a closely fought race as he seeks a second term. If successful, he would become the country’s first leader in 30 years to secure consecutive mandates in a nation long marked by political instability.

Embaló, 53, a former army general, is competing against 11 challengers. His strongest opponent is Fernando Dias da Costa, 47, a rising political figure supported by former prime minister Domingos Simões Pereira. Dias da Costa is also backed by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), the country’s historic liberation movement.

This election is particularly contentious as PAIGC was barred from presenting its own candidates for the first time, after being deemed to have submitted required documents too late. The exclusion has fuelled criticism and heightened tensions around the vote.

Analysts expect a narrow contest between Embaló and Dias da Costa. A runoff will be necessary unless one candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the first round.

Nearly half of the country’s 2.2 million population registered to vote, with turnout surpassing 65%. The national electoral body said provisional results are expected on Thursday.

Observers say the political climate has become increasingly divisive. Analysts argue that the current environment reflects a system shaped heavily by individual influence rather than institutional norms.

Guinea-Bissau remains one of the world’s poorest countries, with about half of its population living in poverty. The country has also become a significant transit point for drug trafficking routes connecting Latin America and Europe.

Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, the coastal nation has endured repeated coups—nine before Embaló took office in 2020. The president says he has survived three more attempts since then, though opponents argue he exaggerates instability to justify political crackdowns, an accusation he rejects.