IMF Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast To 4.4%

On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased Nigeria’s projected economic growth for 2026 to 4.4 per cent, up from the 4.2 per cent it had forecast in October.

The Fund, in its January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces,” also upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2027 to 4.1 per cent from the previous 4 per cent estimate.

It noted that Nigeria’s improved outlook mirrors broader gains across sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is expected to rise from 4.4 per cent in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and reform initiatives in key economies.

The IMF’s report projected global GDP growth at 3.3 per cent in 2026, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the October estimate.

This comes after a 3.3 per cent growth in 2025, which exceeds the Fund’s previous forecast by 0.1 percentage point, with the 2027 global growth projection remaining at 3.2 per cent, unchanged from earlier estimates.

The IMF further indicated that global inflation is expected to continue falling, from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027.

Analysts point out that the IMF’s upward revision of Nigeria’s 2026 and 2027 growth forecasts reflects the optimism the Bretton Woods institutions, the World Bank and IMF, have in Nigeria’s medium-term economic prospects.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released last Tuesday, the World Bank also raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4 per cent, from the 3.7 per cent it had projected in June 2025.

The World Bank stated: “Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, the fastest pace in over a decade.”

It added: “This further firming of growth is anticipated to be underpinned by a continued expansion in services and a rebound in agricultural output, with a modest acceleration in the non-oil industry.”

“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity,” the Bank said.

“They are also expected to improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance.”