Lagos 2027: Inside Tinubu’s Influence In Choosing Sanwo-Olu’s Successor

As Nigeria gradually moves toward the 2027 election cycle, political activities are gaining momentum across many states, with governorship aspirants building alliances and testing their popularity.

However, in Lagos, the nation’s commercial hub, visible political movements ahead of the governorship race remain relatively quiet.

To observers, this calm is not unusual. Instead, it reflects the deeply rooted political culture of the state, where candidates often emerge through internal consensus rather than open competition.

Within the ruling All Progressives Congress, many aspirants are deliberately avoiding public campaigns, recognising that grassroots mobilisation alone does not guarantee the party’s ticket. Historically, the real contest has taken place behind the scenes, with aspirants lobbying key political figures, particularly Bola Tinubu, whose influence is widely seen as decisive.

This underscores the unique structure of Lagos politics, where party elders and long-established networks continue to shape outcomes. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, the dominance of the APC has made its governorship ticket almost synonymous with victory at the polls.

For instance, Babatunde Fashola secured the party’s ticket in 2007 and went on to win the election. The same pattern was seen in 2015 when Akinwunmi Ambode emerged as candidate and later defeated Jimi Agbaje. Similarly, the incumbent governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, won both the party ticket and the eventual election despite internal party tensions.

Zoning and Religion Take Centre Stage

As the 2027 race approaches, zoning and religion are becoming critical factors in determining who will fly the APC flag. With Sanwo-Olu, a Christian from Lagos Central, completing his tenure, some stakeholders believe the ticket may shift to a Muslim candidate from either Lagos East or Lagos West.

Though this arrangement is informal, it has historically influenced political decisions in the state. However, the current list of aspirants does not fully align with this expectation, suggesting that final decisions may still defy predictions.

Key Names in the Race

Several prominent figures are already engaging in consultations across political blocs. These include Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat; Chief of Staff to the President Femi Gbajabiamila; Principal Secretary to the President Hakeem Muri-Okunola; Minister of Education Tunji Alausa; Chief of Staff to the Governor Tayo Ayinde; Commissioner Tokunbo Wahab; and businessman Samuel Ajose.

While Hamzat and Gbajabiamila are considered among the most experienced, others have also built strong reputations within government and party circles.

Religion remains a sensitive issue. Muslim stakeholders are pushing for a candidate of their faith, echoing a similar demand made by Christian groups in 2015, which contributed to Ambode’s emergence after Tinubu and Fashola, both Muslims, had governed for 16 years.

Currently, Ambode (Lagos East) and Sanwo-Olu (Lagos Central), both Christians, would have completed a combined 12 years in office by 2027.

Zoning also presents a challenge. Tinubu (1999–2007) was from Lagos West, followed by Fashola (Lagos Central), Ambode (Lagos East), and Sanwo-Olu (Lagos Central).

As one insider noted: “If the party is going to hinge its calculations on religion and zoning, it might face the challenge of balancing.

“But here is a party that has peculiar ways of handling its internal affairs. We should wait and see. However, the issue of religion may not be easily jettisoned this time, just as I know that the next candidate cannot come from Lagos Central.”

Profiles of Major Contenders

Obafemi Hamzat
Widely seen as a blend of technocratic expertise and grassroots appeal, Hamzat has served in multiple administrations and currently holds the position of deputy governor. As a Muslim from Lagos East, his profile aligns with prevailing zoning considerations, though his success will depend on navigating internal party dynamics.

Femi Gbajabiamila
A former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Gbajabiamila brings national visibility and strong legislative experience. However, his Lagos Central origin and questions about statewide grassroots reach may affect his chances.

Hakeem Muri-Okunola
Known for his administrative background, particularly as former Head of Service, Muri-Okunola is closely linked to Tinubu’s inner circle. His limited electoral experience and Lagos Central origin could be challenges.

Tunji Alausa
A reform-driven technocrat and current minister, Alausa’s credentials appeal to policy-focused stakeholders. As a Muslim from Lagos East, he fits zoning expectations, though his grassroots base remains limited.

Tayo Ayinde
A seasoned political organiser, Ayinde is recognised for his grassroots strength, especially in Lagos West. However, his Christian faith may be a disadvantage under current religious considerations.

Samuel Ajose
An entrepreneur from Lagos West, Ajose stands out as a political outsider. While his regional origin could work in his favour, his limited political structure and Christian background may pose hurdles.

One recurring feature of Lagos politics is the emergence of unexpected candidates. In 2007, Fashola, then relatively unknown, was chosen over more prominent aspirants. A similar scenario played out in 2015 when Ambode emerged despite not being the frontrunner.

These examples highlight a consistent pattern: final decisions are often shaped by internal negotiations rather than public visibility.

As 2027 draws closer, Lagos politics remains calm on the surface but highly strategic beneath. While leading aspirants continue consultations, the eventual candidate may still emerge from unexpected quarters.

For now, the process remains firmly in the hands of party leadership. As APC spokesman Seye Oladejo noted, “there are many capable individuals within the APC, therefore, nobody among those mentioned is a pushover. My conviction is that whoever the party picks will eventually win the governorship election in 2027.”