Images of bedraggled jihadists and families surrendering to the military have sparked heated debate over the Nigerian army’s claims of success in its long war and the future of fighters who lay down their guns.

Scores of Boko Haram members have been shown in army images this month surrendering to soldiers in northeast Borno state, some given hand-written signs to hold asking Nigerians for forgiveness.

Nigeria’s army describes these as mass defections — the success, it says, of an intensified campaign to end a 12-year conflict that has killed around 40,000 people and displaced around two million more.

But analysts and security sources say the surrenders are probably driven more by Boko Haram’s recent losses in infighting with rival jihadists from the Islamic State West Africa Province or ISWAP.


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