It has been six months since the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) took off on January 1, but impossible to say how it has contributed to Nigeria’s trade with other African countries, even as official data shows exports that were on the increase now suddenly dropped by half, while imports increased.

The latest news on the AfCFTA secretariat’s website is from April 27, announcing that Wamkele Mene, the secretary-general, had a negative COVID test result on return to Accra from ‘a mission outside the country’, which hosts the secretariat.

Till date, no information has been publicly made available as to if or how the trade agreement is impacting trade on the continent. No data on any activities that may have been executed or progress towards full trade is available.

However, Nigeria’s exports to other African countries has declined for the first time in five years within the first quarter, with data from the National Bureau of Statistics foreign trade report showing a year-on-year decline of 54 percent when compared to the same period of 2020. Conversely, imports from other African countries increased by 51 percent within the same period.

From N393.8 billion worth of exports across Africa in the first quarter of 2017, Nigeria’s exports increased in that same period of every subsequent year, recording N979 billion in 2020, before dipping to N449.8 billion this year’s first quarter. Even though the final tally at the end of 2020 was lower than the previous full year, it is hard to imagine how 2021 would end with the year already starting weak.

On the other hand, imports with an unstable pattern of increasing and decreasing, surged 51 percent in the first quarter of 2021, with Nigeria importing N183.4 billion worth of goods from other African countries, from N121.4 billion in the same period of 2020.

It remains unclear if AfCFTA is contributing to the trade pattern already being seen in Nigeria, even as it appears little is happening, at least publicly. Another poser has been; are the engines of AfCFTA itself being too slow to roar to life?


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