Over 8 Mllion Cases As HIV Rises In South Africa

The number of people living with HIV in South Africa has continued to grow, reaching over eight million in 2024. This figure comes from the latest estimates by Thembisa, South Africa’s leading mathematical model for tracking HIV and TB. That means about 12.8% of the country’s population is now living with the virus.

This steady rise is happening because more people are becoming newly infected with HIV than are dying from it. The increase also reflects the success of antiretroviral treatment, which helps people with HIV live longer, healthier lives.

Young women, especially between the ages of 15–24, continue to be more severely affected due to a mix of biological, social, and economic factors, including gender-based violence and unequal access to education and healthcare.

Between mid-2023 and mid-2024, there were an estimated 178,000 new HIV infections. In the same period, around 105,000 people living with HIV died about 53,000 due to HIV-related causes, and another 52,000 from other causes.

Thembisa’s current estimates for new infections are slightly higher than last year’s. Dr. Leigh Johnson from the University of Cape Town, who leads development of the model, says this change is largely because the model now includes new data showing that condom use is on the decline.

Impact of U.S Aid Suspension on South Africa

South Africa has more than 7.5 million people living with HIV the highest number in the world.

Right now, around 5.5 million South Africans rely on antiretroviral treatment. But the future of this treatment is uncertain after President Trump suspended funding for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). This program provides over $400 million (about €384.5 million) each year to support HIV care and nonprofits in South Africa nearly 17% of all funding, according to the Health Ministry.

Since it began in 2003, PEPFAR has been credited with saving at least 26 million lives worldwide, according to the UN’s AIDS agency.

A U.S. federal judge ordered a temporary lift of the funding freeze in mid February 2025 and the U.S. Embassy in South Africa has said some PEPFAR projects will resume under a limited waiver but the damage is already visible.

Some aid groups that used to provide vital HIV services have closed their doors. Their buildings now sit empty with notices hanging on the gates, and PEPFAR-branded vehicles are parked and unused. As a result, patients are being sent to already overwhelmed public clinics and hospitals.

Most of the PEPFAR funding goes to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that run HIV programs alongside government health services. These groups don’t just give out medicine, they test people in rural communities, raise awareness, and support people who might be afraid to visit public clinics because of the stigma that still surrounds HIV.

Now, without their support, the pressure on the public health system is growing.

In 2023 alone, around 50,000 people in South Africa died from HIV-related illnesses.

The Desmond Tutu HIV Centre at the University of Cape Town warns that without PEPFAR support, the country could see another 500,000 HIV-related deaths over the next ten years. The reason? Fewer people will be tested, and many programs that offer education, care, and community support may disappear.

How Would You Know You Have HIV?

The only way to know if you have HIV is to get tested. You can’t depend on symptoms to tell you.

Knowing your HIV status helps you take steps to care for your health and protect your partner.

If you test positive, there’s medicine you can take to treat HIV. When taken as prescribed, this treatment (called ART or antiretroviral therapy) can lower the amount of HIV in your blood so much that it doesn’t show up on standard tests, this is called an undetectable viral load. People who reach this point and stay there can live long lives and won’t pass the virus to their partners through sex.

If you test negative, there are ways to stay protected. You can talk to your doctor about PrEP, a daily pill or shot for people at risk of getting HIV, or PEP, a medicine you can take within 72 hours after a possible exposure.

If you’re pregnant, it’s important to get tested. If you have HIV, starting treatment early during pregnancy and continuing after birth along with giving your baby medicine can greatly lower the chance of passing HIV to your baby. The medicine will also support your health during and after pregnancy.

HIV self-tests are also available. These let you test yourself at home or in a private place. You can buy a kit at a pharmacy or online, or your doctor might be able to help you get one. Some health centers and community groups also give them out at low cost or for free.

How to prevent it

If someone has had contact with a person who has HIV, the appropriate steps depend on the type of contact.

Casual Contact (hugging, shaking hands, sharing utensils, etc.)
No action needed, HIV is not transmitted through casual contact.

Sexual Contact or Exposure to Blood (e.g., unprotected sex, needlestick injury):

Immediately wash the area with soap and water (for skin exposure) or rinse mouth/eyes with clean water or saline if exposed there.

Seek medical attention immediately within 72 hours at the latest.

Ask for PEP (Post-Exposure Prophylaxis) a 28-day course of antiretroviral medication that can prevent HIV if started early.

If you’re unsure whether there was risk, talk to a healthcare provider immediately, they can help assess the situation and determine if PEP is necessary.

HIV is transmitted through blood, semen, vaginal fluids, rectal fluids, and breast milk. Not through saliva, sweat, or skin contact.
Prevention steps like condom use, PrEP(for ongoing protection), and safe needle practices are highly effective.