Russia – Ukraine Crises Provide Lessons for Taiwan Against China

Taiwan’s military strategists may be studying the Russia – Ukraine crisis for a reason much different from anyone else.  

Reports say Taiwan is monitoring Russia’s moves and Ukraine’s resistance, for the island’s own battle strategy in the event its giant neighbor China ever makes good on its threat to take them by force.

Russia’s use of precision missiles, as well as Ukraine’s tactically well thought through resistance despite being outmanned and outgunned, are being carefully watched in security circles in Taiwan, whose own forces are likewise dwarfed by China’s.

While Taiwan’s government has not reported any unusual activity by the military in China, Taipei has raised its alert level.

President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan has championed the idea of “asymmetric warfare”, to make its forces more mobile and hard to attack, with for example vehicle-mounted missiles.

Ma Cheng-Kun, director of the Graduate Institute of China Military Affairs Studies at Taiwan’s National Defence University, said Ukraine had used the same concept with mobile weapons to stymie Russian forces.

“Ukraine’s military has been making full use of asymmetric warfare, very effectively, and so far successfully holding off Russia’s advance,” added Ma, a government advisor on China policy.

“That’s exactly what our armed forces have been proactively developing,” he said, pointing to weapons like the lightweight and indigenously-developed Kestrel shoulder-launched anti-armour rocket designed for close-in warfare.

“From Ukraine’s performance we can be even more confident in our own.”

Last week, the defense ministry said it plans to more than double its yearly missile production capacity to close to 500 this year, including the upgraded version of the Hsiung Feng IIE missile, the longer-range Hsiung Sheng land-attack missile which military experts say is capable of hitting targets further inland in China.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry says it has a “close grasp” of the international security situation and that it is working hard to “improve its armaments and national defense combat capability all the time” but that the military is “not provocative”

REPORTS say Taiwan can easily detect signs of Chinese military movements and make preparations ahead of an invasion in which China would need to mobilize hundreds of thousands of soldiers and equipment like ships, which could be easily targeted by Taiwanese missiles.

This highlights the differences between Taiwan and Ukraine’s physical positions that have offered reassurance.

Taiwan’s government has repeatedly pointed out, for example, the natural barrier of the Taiwan Strait which separates it from China. Ukraine has a long land border with Russia.

However, Looming at the back of their minds is the perennial debate – given light by the present conflict – whether U.S. forces would ride to Taiwan’s aid in the event of a Chinese attack. Washington practices “strategic ambiguity” on the subject, giving no clear answer either way.

Taiwan, a major semiconductor producer, hopes its geographic and supply chain importance makes it different from Ukraine.

But the Biden administration repeatedly ruling out sending troops to Ukraine has caused unease for some in Taiwan.