South Africa Overtakes Nigeria as Africa’s Top Fuel Importer

South Africa has surpassed Nigeria as Africa’s leading fuel importer, following the surge in production at Nigeria’s Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, according to a new report by energy consultancy CITAC.

The Dangote refinery, which began large-scale production in early 2024, is reshaping Africa’s fuel supply landscape. With an impressive capacity of 650,000 barrels per day—making it the largest single-train refinery in the world—Dangote’s output has significantly cut Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel.

Data from CITAC indicates that Nigeria imported 3.1 million metric tonnes of refined petroleum products in Q1 2025. In contrast, South Africa imported 4.2 million tonnes during the same period, marking a significant shift in Africa’s energy market.

“Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC, said, “Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote. Since early this year, South African imports have consistently been the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Crude throughput across the region rose by 77.8% year-on-year in 2024, driven largely by Dangote’s operations.”

For decades, Nigeria has relied on imported fuel despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer. However, the report suggests that Nigeria’s refined fuel imports will decline to 6.4 million tonnes in 2025, less than half of South Africa’s projected 15.5 million tonnes.

The Dangote refinery’s growing output has displaced many traditional fuel imports in West Africa. The report states, “The long-awaited 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery began operations in January 2024, gradually ramping up production. It has become a major source of petroleum products, disrupting established trade routes.”

While Nigeria’s fuel import dependency declines, South Africa’s need for foreign fuel is intensifying. Since 2020, several of its refineries have shut down due to accidents, ageing infrastructure, and lack of investment. Currently, over 60% of South Africa’s fuel demand is met by imports, according to Transnet SOC Ltd.

The situation worsened in 2022 when Sapref, the country’s largest refinery, was idled. Although the government acquired Sapref in 2023 to restart operations, a relaunch date has yet to be confirmed.

“South Africa’s refining shortfall is attracting foreign traders looking to fill the supply gap,” said an industry insider involved in Shell’s divestment from Sapref.

Analysts believe Nigeria’s reduced reliance on fuel imports could help strengthen the naira, ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and narrow trade deficits. Additionally, it could lessen the fiscal burden of subsidising imported fuel.

The Dangote refinery’s impact is also reshaping business models for fuel traders. Swiss-based Mocoh, which had long focused on supplying petrol to Nigeria’s market through deals with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, has shifted its strategy in response.

“With Dangote now supplying large volumes to the domestic market, we’ve had to pivot quickly,” said Olivier Lassagne, Mocoh’s new CEO. “While we lost most of our petrol trade with NNPC in early 2025, we’re now repositioning for new opportunities.”

Mocoh is now collaborating with Dangote to export surplus fuel to nearby markets like Benin, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso. However, competition is fierce, with Dangote preferring trading giants such as Vitol, BP, and Trafigura for major export deals. Meanwhile, newer players like Atmin, backed by Afreximbank, are also seeking to expand intra-African fuel trade.

“Dangote values flexibility and market pricing—they’re not locking in exclusive partnerships,” Lassagne noted. “We’re positioning ourselves as a nimble regional player in this evolving landscape.”