U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that “bad things happen” if nuclear negotiations with Iran collapse, as a second American aircraft carrier moves toward the Middle East and Tehran conducts joint military drills with Russia.
The rising tensions come as both Washington and Tehran signal they are prepared for possible military confrontation if diplomatic efforts over Iran’s nuclear program fail.
Iran held annual naval exercises with Russian forces in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean on Thursday, even as the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier advanced closer to the region. The parallel military maneuvers underscore a volatile standoff that has escalated in recent weeks.
Trump said he believes Iran has 10 to 15 days to reach an agreement. “I would think that would be enough time,” he told reporters, while cautioning: “It’s proven to be, over the years, not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran, and we have to make a meaningful deal. Otherwise bad things happen.”
Indirect nuclear talks in Geneva have yielded little visible progress. Tehran has resisted broader U.S. and Israeli demands to curb its missile program and sever ties with armed groups in the region, insisting negotiations focus solely on nuclear issues.
A senior U.S. official, speaking anonymously, said Iran has agreed to prepare a written proposal addressing American concerns raised during recent talks. Meanwhile, U.S. national security leaders have reportedly reviewed plans to ensure the “full forces” required for potential military action could be in place by mid-March.
Iran’s leadership remains under pressure after 12 days of Israeli and U.S. strikes last year targeted its nuclear and military facilities. Domestic unrest has also intensified, with renewed anti-government chants emerging at memorial gatherings marking 40 days since protesters were killed during a January crackdown.
Despite internal vulnerabilities, Iran retains the capacity to retaliate against Israel and U.S. bases across the region. Tehran has warned that any attack would spark a broader regional conflict.
Earlier this week, Iran conducted live-fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil passes. State media outlet Islamic Republic News Agency reported that the exercises aimed at “upgrading operational coordination as well as exchange of military experiences.” Footage showed Revolutionary Guard naval forces boarding a vessel during the drills. Authorities also issued rocket-fire warnings to pilots operating in the area, signaling planned anti-ship missile launches.
Meanwhile, tracking data placed the USS Gerald R. Ford off the coast of Morocco, positioning it to potentially transit through the Strait of Gibraltar into the eastern Mediterranean. While its presence does not confirm imminent military action, it significantly strengthens Washington’s operational readiness should Trump choose to authorize a strike.
International concern is growing. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged Polish citizens to leave Iran immediately, warning that “within a few, a dozen, or even a few dozen hours, the possibility of evacuation will be out of the question.” Germany has also relocated a “mid-two digit number” of non-essential personnel from a base in northern Iraq while maintaining a presence to support multinational operations.
The New York–based Soufan Center noted that an additional 50 U.S. combat aircraft — including F-35s, F-22s and F-16s — have been deployed to bases in the Arab Gulf states, reinforcing Trump’s repeated warnings of potential large-scale air and missile operations if diplomacy breaks down.
Israel is likewise preparing for potential retaliation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday, “We are prepared for any scenario,” adding that if Iran attacks Israel, “they will experience a response they cannot even imagine.”
Netanyahu, who recently met with Trump, has long advocated for stronger U.S. action against Tehran. He argues that any agreement must dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, restrict its missile arsenal and sever ties with groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
Tehran maintains that its nuclear activities are peaceful and says it has not enriched uranium since last summer’s strikes. Trump previously claimed those attacks had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites, though the full extent of the damage remains unclear, as Iranian authorities have restricted international inspections.
With warships repositioning, air power increasing and diplomatic deadlines narrowing, the coming days could prove decisive for the future of U.S.-Iran relations and regional stability.
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