Two Years On: Is Nigeria’s Oil And Gas Sector Thriving Under Tinubu’s Watch?

Nearly two years into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria’s oil and gas sector presents a mixed bag of modest progress and lingering questions. Crude oil production has seen what officials describe as a “modest improvement,” with output fluctuating between 1.6 and 1.7 million barrels per day. While this suggests a level of stability, it also raises concerns about underperformance in a country with far greater production potential. Is this improvement worth celebrating, or does it simply highlight the persistent inefficiencies and failure to fully harness the sector’s capacity?

The administration’s headline reforms like the removal of the petrol subsidy and the rollout of the CNG initiative were touted as game-changers, expected to free up over ₦2 trillion monthly and cut transportation costs by 60%. Yet, with inflation still biting and the cost of living rising, many Nigerians are left wondering why the benefits remain largely theoretical. 

Meanwhile, investment announcements, including two foreign direct investment deals valued at over half a billion dollars and a 5.54% GDP growth rebound in 2024, seem promising on the surface. But are these gains reaching everyday citizens? With state-owned refineries still struggling and corruption concerns unresolved, the true impact of these policies remains a critical point of debate in assessing President Tinubu’s midterm performance in the oil and gas sector.