Russia’s war in Ukraine could mean changes for Ed Kessel’s farm along a quiet stretch of western North Dakota.
Worldwide, farmers like Kessel are weighing whether to change their planting patterns and grow more wheat this spring as the war has choked off or thrown into question grain supplies from a region known as “the breadbasket of the world.”
Ukraine and Russia account for a third of global wheat and barley exports, which countries in the Middle East, Asia and Africa rely on to feed millions of people who subsist on subsidized bread and bargain noodles.
They are also top exporters of other grains and sunflower seed oil used for cooking and food processing.
Kessel said he may plant some more wheat and ride the tide of high prices that have spiked by a third since the invasion, helping offset losses from drought and the increasing cost of fuel, but not a lot more.
“Honestly, it probably will help us plant a few more wheat acres. We’ll put a few more acres into wheat and a few more into sunflowers,” said Kessel, also first vice president of the North Dakota Grain Growers Association.
Major grain producers like the United States, Canada, France, Australia and Argentina are being closely watched to see if they can quickly ramp up production to fill in the gaps from lost Ukrainian and Russian supplies.
That means uncertainty for countries like Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan, Iran, Ethiopia and others that cannot grow enough wheat, barley, corn or other grains to meet their needs.
The war has raised the specter of food shortages and political instability in countries that rely on affordable grain imports.
Any extra grain exports from anywhere in the world “will likely only partially offset lower Black Sea shipments over the remainder of the current season,” the International Grains Council said in its March report.
About half of the grain the World Food Program buys to feed 125 million people worldwide comes from Ukraine.
The double blow of rising food prices and depressed wheat exports from the war is a recipe for “catastrophe not just in Ukraine, but potentially globally,” the head of the U.N. food assistance agency warned.
Australia and India have responded with increased grain exports, but there’s little room for others to immediately do the same. That’s mainly due to recurrent drought, said Arnaud Petit, executive director of the International Grains Council.
The U.S. produced around 44 million tons of wheat for the 2021-2022 season. Just two to three years ago, it was over 50 million tons. Petit pointed to drought and farmers switching to more profitable crops.
Canada, Argentina and Australia could try to ramp up wheat production for the coming season that ends in mid-2023, but it’s too early to tell if farmers are changing their planting patterns to focus more on grains like wheat.
The world has 278 million tons of wheat stock to help buffer shortfalls from Ukraine, said Petit of the International Grains Council. Half of that stock, however, is in China, which holds more than a year’s worth of supply to ensure food security for its 1.4 billion people.
Meanwhile, farmers a world away are making their own hard decisions. Tom Bernhardt, who operates a fifth-generation crop and cattle ranch near Linton in North Dakota, said no-till farmers like himself won’t deviate too much from their normal rotation and plant more wheat because it can lead to problems with soil health and weeds.
Plus, there’s no guarantee wheat prices will remain high.
