At a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., asked Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark Milley whether they rated the likelihood of a regeneration of Al Qaeda or the Islamic State group in Afghanistan as small, medium or large.
“I would assess it as medium,” Austin replied. “I would also say, senator, that it would take possibly two years for them to develop that capability.”
Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a veteran of the war in Afghanistan, said he agreed.
“I think that if certain other things happen — if there was a collapse of the government or the dissolution of the Afghan security forces — that risk would obviously increase, but right now I would say ‘medium’ and about two years or so,” Milley said.
Their responses underscored the overall military fears about the consequences of a complete, unconditional withdrawal. Military leaders over the past few years have pushed back against administration efforts — including at times by then-President Donald Trump — to pull out of Afghanistan by a certain date, rather than basing troop numbers on the security conditions on the ground.
It was the most specific public forecast of the prospects for a renewed international terrorist threat from Afghanistan since President Joe Biden announced in April that all U.S. troops would withdraw by Sept. 11.
Milley also acknowledged that a collapse of the government or takeover by the Taliban could have broader impacts on the strides women have made in Afghanistan. And the military has said it will be far more difficult to collect intelligence on terror groups in the country, if there is no American presence there.
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