What Could Happen To El-Rufai If Found Guilty?

Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai faces a high-stakes legal and political showdown as federal authorities pursue charges over alleged cybercrimes, including unlawful interception of National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu’s phone communications.

These accusations follow El-Rufai’s February 13, 2026, interview on Arise TV, where he claimed knowledge of tapped conversations in which Ribadu allegedly ordered his arrest.

Simultaneously, El-Rufai has raised alarms over the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) procuring 10 kilograms of thallium sulphate, a lethal chemical, from Poland, claims the government has denied and referred to the Department of State Services (DSS) for investigation.

Legal Consequences for El-Rufai

The Federal Government has charged El-Rufai under the Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, etc.) (Amendment) Act, 2024, and the Nigerian Communications Act, 2003.

He faces three counts: admitting to unlawful interception, failing to report knowledge of such acts, and compromising national security.

Convictions under the Cybercrimes Act carry up to two years in prison or fines of N5 million (about $3,000), while breaches affecting national security could extend to five years or more.

Combined with ongoing EFCC investigations into alleged misappropriation of N423 billion during his tenure as Kaduna governor, potential sentences could exceed a decade, alongside asset forfeiture and restitution orders.

A guilty verdict would also bar El-Rufai from holding public office under Nigerian electoral law, effectively ending his plans to contest the 2027 elections or disrupt President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid.

Politically, it risks alienating his northern base, with protests already emerging in Abuja supporting him.

Financially, fines and property seizures could severely impact him and his family, including sons Bello and Bashir, who are reportedly under scrutiny.

Past Cases and Results

Strong allegations against high-ranking Nigerian officials are not uncommon, yet convictions are rare. Past cases show a pattern of charges that often fizzle due to political settlements, lack of evidence, or withdrawn prosecutions.

Activist Omoyele Sowore faced defamation charges under the Cybercrimes Act in 2022 for claims against President Tinubu, but the case lingered without full resolution.

Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan faced criminal defamation charges in 2024, which were later withdrawn after public outcry.

Corruption probes against governors like Abdullahi Adamu (Nasarawa) and Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano) never resulted in convictions despite multi-billion naira allegations.

High-profile cases such as Sambo Dasuki’s $2.1 billion arms scandal and Diezani Alison-Madueke’s N47.2 billion fraud allegations have dragged on for years with unresolved verdicts.

These precedents suggest that even serious allegations like El-Rufai’s could take years to resolve, with acquittal possible if evidence is insufficient.

Implications for the Government if Allegations Are True

Should El-Rufai’s claims hold merit, particularly regarding thallium sulphate procurement, the consequences for the Tinubu administration could be severe.

Thallium sulphate, a colorless, odorless poison historically used as a rodenticide but banned in many countries, poses a significant public safety and security risk.

Unauthorized importation could indicate regulatory failures at agencies like NAFDAC or the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and raise concerns about misuse for assassination or terrorism.

Internationally, confirmation of such procurement could attract scrutiny or sanctions from organizations like the Chemical Weapons Convention.

Domestically, it would erode public trust, potentially prompting calls for Ribadu’s resignation and intensifying political opposition.

It could also legitimize claims of government overreach and widespread surveillance abuses if phone-tapping allegations are verified.

Protests in Abuja and Kaduna indicate public sensitivity to the issue, and further demonstrations could escalate ahead of the 2027 elections.

A verified scandal would reinforce opposition narratives of systemic corruption and administrative negligence, potentially destabilizing the government and prompting reforms in procurement and intelligence oversight.

As El-Rufai remains in EFCC custody with no arraignment date set, the case could become a landmark conviction or join the long list of unresolved political controversies.

It underscores Nigeria’s ongoing struggle with accountability in its power corridors.