The cost of taking flight in Africa is currently moving faster than the planes themselves. As the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran escalates, a massive supply shock is rippling through the continent, leaving airlines struggling to stay solvent and passengers facing steep surcharges.
But why is this crisis hitting Africa particularly hard and what does it mean for the future of travel. Here’s a breakdown of what LN247 found out.
The “Hormuz” Bottleneck
Africa’s aviation industry is uniquely vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy. Data from S&P Global reveals that 70% of the continent’s jet fuel and kerosene imports flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
With shipping through this vital artery nearly halted since late February, roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas has vanished from the market. For African carriers, this isn’t just a price hike, it’s a threat to availability.
Now, the volatility has created a nightmare for flight operations. In some regions, prices are shifting so rapidly that they change between takeoff and landing.
One South African charter operator reported a price surge of six rand per liter in the mere 10 hours it took to complete a medical emergency round trip and operators can no longer safely quote jobs far in advance, a price guaranteed on Monday could result in a financial loss by Wednesday.
Disproportionate Costs
While jet fuel usually accounts for 20% to 25% of operating costs globally, African airlines are far more exposed as
fuel consumes 30% to 40% of operating budgets. For airlines like FlySafair, fuel can represent up to 55% of direct costs.
In South Africa, coastal airports reportedly saw prices spike by 70% in a single week. Without “hedging”, that’s buying fuel in advance at a fixed price, many airlines are fully exposed to these market swings.
Thinning Buffers and Limited Refining
Unlike Asia, which maintains larger inventories, Africa’s safety net is shrinking. Countries like:
South Africa has Approximately 3–4 weeks of stock remains.
Kenya: Roughly 50 days of supply.
Zambia: Only 10 days of stock, leading to warnings against panic hoarding.
The problem is compounded by a lack of local infrastructure. Many of Africa’s refineries are small or offline, forcing a heavy reliance on expensive, imported refined products.
The Passenger Impact: What To Expect
To survive, airlines are moving into defensive mode and so if you are planning to fly, you will likely see many carriers have already added temporary levies to ticket prices to offset the $2,071 in additional costs incurred per flight hour.
Some airlines are considering reducing the number of flights to save on variable costs, while existing tickets are generally honored. Also, new bookings are being adjusted in real-time to reflect the current market.
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