Why Obi Changed His Subsidy Stance

Barely a month ago, Peter Obi was clear about where he stood on Nigeria’s petrol subsidy.

Speaking at the Nigerian Bar Association conference in Port Harcourt in August, the Nigeria Democratic Congress presidential candidate said subsidy removal should remain in place, despite concerns about how the savings were being managed.

His argument then was that poor management of the proceeds was not enough reason to reverse the policy. (Channels Television)

But by September 28, Obi was presenting a different position.

At an Obi-Kwankwaso town hall meeting in Sokoto, he said an administration led by him would restore petroleum subsidy after dealing with corruption.

“By removing the corruption, I assure you that we will bring back subsidy,” Obi said. (TheCable)

So what changed?

From removing subsidy to removing corruption first

Obi’s latest explanation suggests that he now separates the idea of subsidising petrol from the corruption he says has historically surrounded the system.

His argument in Sokoto was that corruption — rather than subsidy itself — is the central problem.

That represents a significant shift from his August position.

Then, Obi argued that Nigeria should retain subsidy removal and redirect the savings towards sectors such as healthcare and other public services. He also criticised what he described as the mismanagement of resources generated by the removal. (Channels Television)

The new position is different: tackle corruption first, then restore some form of support for petrol prices.

However, Obi did not provide detailed figures at the Sokoto event explaining how much such a subsidy would cost, how it would be funded or precisely what form it would take. (TheCable)

Kwankwaso had already signalled a different subsidy plan

Obi’s announcement also comes days after his running mate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, publicly said an NDC government would reintroduce fuel subsidy “in our own way.”

During an Arise News interview on September 22, Kwankwaso said the proposed approach could include increased government investment in domestic refining, with the aim of making petrol available at a more affordable price. (Arise News)

Two days later, both the NDC and representatives of Obi’s camp publicly backed Kwankwaso’s proposal for a different form of subsidy. (Punch Newspapers)

That sequence provides important context to Obi’s Sokoto declaration.

It does not establish why Obi personally changed his position, but it shows that the wider NDC had already begun moving towards a policy of reducing fuel prices through some form of government intervention before his latest statement.

Why corruption is central to Obi’s new argument

Nigeria’s old petrol subsidy system has long attracted allegations of fraud, inflated claims, smuggling and other leakages.

President Bola Tinubu also cited corruption and the fiscal burden of the subsidy when defending its removal after taking office in 2023. His administration maintains that the former system consumed resources that could have been used for areas such as healthcare, education and infrastructure. (State House Abuja)

Obi’s latest position therefore does not dispute that corruption affected the old system.

The difference is in the proposed response.

Instead of keeping subsidy permanently removed because of those problems, Obi now says corruption should first be tackled before government support for fuel prices is restored.

The unanswered question: what would Obi’s subsidy look like?

The key policy question now is not simply whether Obi supports or opposes subsidy.

It is what kind of subsidy he is proposing.

Kwankwaso has spoken about increasing domestic refining capacity and bringing down petrol prices. Obi has focused on eliminating corruption before restoring subsidy.

But neither statement, so far, provides a detailed funding model, expected petrol price, eligibility structure or estimate of the cost to government.

Those details would determine whether the proposal resembles Nigeria’s former subsidy regime or represents an entirely different system.

What the shift means ahead of 2027

Fuel prices remain a major economic and political issue ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 election.

The Tinubu administration argues that removing the subsidy was necessary because of its fiscal cost and says the decision helped prevent deeper financial problems. (State House Abuja)

Obi’s latest position offers a different approach: remove corruption first, then use government intervention to make fuel more affordable.

The change also means voters now have two statements from Obi made just weeks apart — one supporting subsidy removal and another promising to restore subsidy after tackling corruption.

The next question is whether the NDC will turn that pledge into a detailed policy explaining how the proposed subsidy would work, who would benefit and how Nigeria would pay for it.