With the final round of group fixtures now under way the path to the World Cup final on 19 July is starting to take shape.
But with 32 of the 48 teams advancing to the knockout rounds, new tie-breaker rules, and a table of third-placed teams to keep track of, staying across the various permutations is far from simple.
As it stands, England, sitting top of Group L, and Scotland, who finished third in Group C, would be on the same path to meet in the last 16 in Mexico City (6 July, 01:00 BST) – but they would have to win last-32 ties first.
But Scotland’s 3-0 defeat by Brazil has left their hopes of going through as one of the best third-placed countries hanging by a thread.
There is lots still to be decided, so find out the results required to get teams through to the knockout rounds.
Let’s look at a projection tool that updates in-game to illustrate the schedule all the way to the final.
With dates and times listed alongside the fixtures, planning early morning alarms and potential all-nighters across three host countries and four different time zones has never been easier.
How does knockout qualification work?
Sixteen of the record 48 teams involved in the World Cup will be eliminated at the end of the group stage, leaving 32 nations in the mix for the trophy.
The top two teams from each of the 12 groups will advance to the last 32.
The remaining spots in the knockout stages are taken by the eight third-placed teams with the best records.
If two or more countries are level on points, head-to-head results are used as the first tie-breaker to determine positions.
If the teams remain tied, they are ranked on goal difference, goals scored, Fifa’s Team Conduct Score – a disciplinary metric for red and yellow cards, and finally whoever had the higher Fifa ranking in June’s published update.
These criteria are applied in the 12 groups of four and to determine the rankings of the 12 third-placed sides.
Group A
Co-hosts Mexico became the first nation to qualify for the knockout stage and won Group A with a 100% record.
El Tri will host a third-placed team from Group C, E, F, H or I in the last 32 on Tuesday.
South Africa beat South Korea 1-0 in their final group stage game to climb into second place and reach the knockout stage for the first time. They will play Canada in the last 32 in Los Angeles on Monday.
That result meant South Korea finished third in the group with three points and they must wait to see if that is enough to send them through.
Czech Republic‘s defeat to Mexico meant they finished bottom of the table with one point from their three matches.
Group B
Switzerland won the group on seven points with a 2-1 victory over Canada.
The Swiss clinched a last-32 tie against a third-placed team in Vancouver on Thursday, 2 July.
Canada finished as runners-up on goal difference with four points and face a date with South Africa in Los Angeles on Monday.
Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 to finish third on four points.
South Africa’s win over South Korea confirmed Bosnia would be one of the best third-placed teams.
Group C
Five-time winners Brazil topped the group on goal difference with seven points thanks to their 3-0 win over Scotland. They now play the runners-up of Group F in Houston on Monday.
Morocco went through in second place on seven points after they beat Haiti 4-2. The North Africans’ next opponents will be the winners of Group F in Monterrey on Monday.
Scotland finish in third on three points and goal difference of -3, which Opta says now gives a 38% chance of qualifying.
Steve Clarke’s men now face an anxious wait to see if they will get another game, or will head home. It might be a close run thing.
Haiti were already eliminated without scoring a point.
Group D
The United States have qualified for the knockout stages as Group D winners and will face a third-placed team from Groups B, E, F, I or J in the next round.
Australia and Paraguay are tied on three points and they meet on Friday (03:00 BST). The Socceroos have the goal difference advantage so only need to draw to progress in second.
Paraguay, however, must defeat Australia if they are to leapfrog their opponents into second place to play the runners-up from Group G.
A draw may well be enough to send Paraguay through in third on four points, and they will have a pretty good idea if that is the case when they play.
If either team loses it will be an anxious wait to discover if three points is enough.
Semi-finalists in 2002, Turkey cannot progress after losing to both Australia and Paraguay.
Group E
Germany have won the group and will face third place from either A, B, C, D, F.
Ivory Coast need a draw against Curacao on Thursday (21:00 BST) to secure second spot, which would set up a last-32 tie against second place from Group L.
Ecuador must beat Germany and hope Ivory Coast lose if they are to finish second. A victory to finish third on four points will probably be enough to go through, however.
Curacao will finish second if they win and Ecuador draw or lose.
If both Ecuador (-1) and Curacao (-6) both win then Ivory Coast would finish bottom, and goal difference would almost certainly send the South American nation through in second and Curacao through as a best third place.
Group F
Netherlands are guaranteed to finish in the top two ahead of their game against already-eliminated Tunisia on Friday (00:00 BST).
Japan still need a point against Sweden to ensure automatic progression, though four points is probably enough in third if they lose.
If both Netherlands and Japan win the top spot would be decided on goal difference, which is locked at +4 while the Dutch have scored one more. If both lose, goal difference would also determine second and third places.
If goal difference is identical it goes to the best disciplinary record (Japan 0, Netherlands -3), then the Netherlands would take it on Fifa world ranking.
The group winners will play Morocco in Monterrey and runners-up will come up against Brazil in Houston, both on Monday.
Sweden can only end up in the automatic places if they win, and they can top the group if the Netherlands suffer a defeat.
A draw would put them in a strong position for one of the eight-best third places, while defeat would leave them sweating to find out if their three points is enough.
Tunisia cannot progress after defeats by Sweden and Japan.
Group G
Egypt lead the group and will go through if they avoid defeat against Iran on Saturday (04:00 BST).
They will still go through automatically if they lose and Belgium do not beat New Zealand. At worst, they could finish third on four points – likely enough to progress.
The group winners play a third-placed team.
Iran will go through if they beat Egypt. If they draw, then a top-two finish is only possible if Belgium also draw.
The runners-up will take on second in Group D.
Belgium will progress in the top two if they beat New Zealand. They can also definitely go through in second with a draw if Egypt beat Iran.
If Belgium and Iran both win they will be tied for top spot, or for second if they draw.
As they drew with each other, placings would be determined on goal difference – which is level at zero.
If goal difference finishes up identical, positions will be determined first by the better disciplinary record (Belgium -7, Iran -2) and then by Fifa world ranking, which Belgium hold.
Neither team will qualify if they lose.
New Zealand must beat Belgium and hope Iran do not win against Egypt to finish in the top two, though they cannot win the group.
If New Zealand and Iran both win, New Zealand would be third on four points which will likely be enough.
Group H
Spain will progress as one of the top two sides if they avoid defeat against Uruguay on Saturday (01:00 BST).
Even if they lose, they will still finish inside the top two unless Cape Verde beat Uruguay. If that happens, Spain will finish third on four points, which is likely to be good enough.
Spain will top the group with a draw, unless Cape Verde win and overturn a goal difference deficit of four.
The group winners go on to play the runners-up of Group J.
Uruguay will be through if they beat Spain. If they draw, then a top-two finish is only possible if Cape Verde also draw.
Cape Verde will make the top two if they beat Saudi Arabia. They can also definitely go through with a draw if Spain beat Uruguay.
If Uruguay and Cape Verde both win they will be tied for top spot, or if they draw for second spot. As they drew with each other, placings would be determined on goal difference – which is level at zero.
If goal difference is identical, positions will be decided first by the better disciplinary record (Cape Verde -3, Uruguay -2) and then by Fifa world ranking, which Uruguay hold.
The second-placed team will face Argentina.
Neither team will qualify if they lose.
Saudi Arabia must beat Cape Verde, and will also need Spain to avoid defeat against Uruguay, to finish second. Four points would likely be enough in third anyway.
Group I
France and Norway have already qualified and meet each other to battle for top spot on Friday (20:00 BST).
As France have the better goal difference, Norway must get a victory to finish first.
The group winners will play a third-placed team and the runners-up meet second in Group E.
Senegal (-3) and Iraq (-6) have zero points and if there is a winner they must hope three points is enough for a best third-place spot.
As both have poor goal difference, as it stands, it looks a tough task to make it through.
Group J
Argentina have topped the group and will face the runners-up from Group H.
Austria and Algeria are tied on three points and they meet on Sunday (00.00 BST).
Austria have the goal difference advantage so need to draw to progress in second.
Algeria, however, must win if they to go through automatically.
A draw may be enough to send Algeria through in third on four points, and they will know if that is the case as this is the final group to complete.
The runners-up play the winners of Group H.
Jordan cannot progress.
Group K
Colombia have secured a top two spot and will win the group if they avoid defeat against Portugal on Sunday (00:30 BST).
The group winners will play a third-placed team.
Portugal must win to finish first, while a draw will lock second place.
Even if Portugal lose and DR Congo win, Roberto Martinez’s team are six goals better off in goal difference so would likely take second.
DR Congo‘s only chance of second is to beat Uzbekistan and overhaul that goal difference. A win, however, will put them onto four points which will surely be enough in third.
Uzbekistan must win but can only finish third, and with goal difference of -7 the chances of taking a place in the next round on three points are slim.
Group L
England top the group ahead of Ghana on goal difference and face Panama in their final game on Saturday (20:00 BST).
Thomas Tuchel’s men must equal or better Ghana’s result against Croatia to remain at the summit and play a third-placed team.
If both games are draws, England win the group.
If both win, top spot would be decided on goal difference which sees England on +2 and Ghana +1, but the Three Lions have scored three more goals.
Should goal difference finish identical, it will go to disciplinary record (England -1, Ghana -2) and then England would secure it on Fifa world ranking.
Ghana will secure a top-two finish if they win or draw against Croatia.
The Africans will top the group if they better England’s result, or win by a big enough margin to overtake them on goal difference.
Ghana will finish third if they lose, but four points should be enough.
Croatia must beat Ghana if they are to secure automatic qualification. A Croatia win and England dropping points would see them top the group.
A draw is very likely to secure safe passage in third, but if they lose a heavy defeat could be damaging to their chances.
Panama, who are yet to open their account, are already eliminated.
How does third-place qualification work?
The eight third-placed teams with the best record will go through to the last 32.
The tiebreakers start with group points, and then goal difference, goals scored, disciplinary record and finally the Fifa world ranking.
The last 32 fixtures are determined by the precise combination of the groups which provide the eight qualifiers.
For instance, if groups B, F, G, H, I, J, K and L provide the third-placed teams, the United States (1D) would play Bosnia-Herzegovina (3B).
We started out with 495 possible outcomes, which will gradually reduce as the groups complete.
What are all the tiebreakers?
When teams are level on points, this is the order used to separate them:
- Head-to-head points between the teams in question. If there are three teams involved, a mini-league is created removing the results against the fourth team
- Head-to-head goal difference
- Head-to-head goals scored
- Group goal difference
- Group goals scored
- Fair play (yellow card -1, red card for two cautions -3, straight red card -4, yellow then straight red -5)
- Fifa world ranking
- Better position in progressively older Fifa world ranking
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