The IOM says a vessel carrying 305 people, mostly Ethiopians, sank near Guhere north of Obock on the night of Oct. 8–9. Only 82 survived. It is among the deadliest maritime disasters yet on the Eastern Route to the Gulf — a crossing made more desperate by renewed war in Tigray and escalation in Yemen.
At least 139 migrants, including at least 15 children, are dead and about 84 are missing after a boat carrying 305 people capsized while crossing from Djibouti to Yemen, the UN’s International Organization for Migration said Sunday.
The disaster
The vessel went down near Guhere, north of the port town of Obock, during the night of Oct. 8–9, the IOM said, citing survivor accounts. Around 82 people survived, according to the agency’s statement; PBS reported that the survivors were all Ethiopian nationals. The death toll rose through the day — early reports circulated a figure of 109 before the IOM revised it upward, a pattern that has become typical as bodies wash ashore over the following days. Photographs released by the agency showed worn sandals and sneakers strewn along the shoreline.
“Our teams are on the ground alongside local authorities to provide emergency assistance,” said Alexandre Coissac, IOM Chief of Mission in Djibouti. An Ethiopian government spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Why they were crossing
The migrants were bound for Yemen, hoping eventually to reach wealthier Gulf labour markets — a journey undertaken even as Yemeni nationals themselves flee their own country. The IOM said the violence there had not deterred departures: “Despite the violence in Yemen, migrants are still making the perilous journeys hoping to make it to the Gulf countries.”
The expulsion layer: That paradox deepens this year. Yemen is experiencing its most serious escalation of fighting since the 2022 UN-brokered truce between Saudi-backed government forces and the Iran-backed Houthis. The IOM described the resulting displacement as alarming, with figures surging to 200,000 from 76,000 in mid-month, and more than 3,700 people have fled Yemen by sea for Djibouti. In effect, the route now carries people in both directions: Ethiopians crossing toward a war they hope to transit, and Yemenis crossing away from it.
What is driving Ethiopians out
Fighting erupted in Ethiopia on Sept. 23, the largest escalation since the 2020–2022 Tigray war. Since then, government-aligned forces have entered Mekelle after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front withdrew from the regional capital, and Eritrean troops have been reported inside Tigray — a development that risks converting an internal conflict into a wider regional war. Eritrea denies allegations it is backing a rebel alliance seeking to overthrow Addis Ababa.
Ethiopians interviewed in the IOM’s most recent Djibouti situation report, covering Sept. 20–30, cited harsh living conditions and drought. “Some migrants also reported that they were fleeing conflict and forced recruitment by armed forces,” the report said. Residents of Tigray have separately described Tigrayan rebels forcibly conscripting young men; the rebels deny it. Fear of the press-gang is itself a driver of flight.
A lethal, well-worn route
The Eastern Route exposes migrants to shipwreck, trafficking and arbitrary arrest on land. In 2025, more than 900 migrants died or went missing along it, according to the IOM’s Missing Migrants Project, even as the number attempting it rose 18%. This single crossing therefore accounts for roughly one-sixth of last year’s entire documented death toll on the route.
