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Soldiers arrest hundreds from camps in war-hit Tigray

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Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers rounded up around 200 displaced civilians during a violent nighttime raid on camps in Ethiopia’s war-hit Tigray region, Amnesty International and witnesses told AFP Tuesday.

It is the largest known operation targeting sprawling displacement camps in the Tigray town of Shire, and comes nearly two months since Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed vowed Eritrean troops would leave Tigray.

The soldiers worked together Monday night to detain more than 100 civilians at the Tsehaye camp and at least 76 at a second camp known as Adiwonfito, beating them and snatching their phones before forcing them onto trucks, Amnesty researcher Fisseha Tekle said.

The victims were mostly men — some of them teenagers and at least one in his 70s — and they have been taken to an area known as Guna on the outskirts of Shire, he said.

The displaced population in Shire mostly comes from farming families forced out of western Tigray, where US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said “ethnic cleansing” is unfolding.

“From the sources I spoke to, they were farmers in the west before they were displaced. There is no way they were special forces, special police or Tigray militias. It’s a kind of mass arrest without any grounds,” Fisseha said.

A witness at Adiwonfito who escaped the roundup told AFP that while individual detentions have occurred in the past, this is the first time soldiers have carried out mass arrests.

Those left behind “are crying and scared so they have fled the camps,” said the witness, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Tewodros Aregai, interim head of Tigray’s Northwestern Zone, told AFP the arrests were spurred by reports that anti-government forces had infiltrated the camps.

“There was a rumour that some forces joined the [displaced] from outside and they have a plan to do something within three days. The security officials from the Ethiopian defence forces have got this information,” he said.

Screening operations are underway and nine civilians had been released as of Tuesday night, he said.

“We are trying to solve the problem… I hope it will be resolved in a short period of time,” he said.

  • Visa restrictions – Abiy, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, sent troops into Tigray last November to detain and disarm leaders of the region’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). He said the move came in response to attacks on federal army camps. Though he vowed the war would be brief, more than six months later fighting continues, reports of atrocities are proliferating and world leaders are warning of a potential humanitarian catastrophe.
  • On Sunday Blinken announced visa and aid restrictions targeting Ethiopian and Eritrean officials. Ethiopia denounced the move as “unfortunate” and “misguided” on Monday, and Eritrea followed suit Tuesday, saying it was “dismayed”. Fisseha told AFP Tuesday he had spoken to multiple witnesses in Shire who said soldiers cried out “Let’s see if the US will save you” as they beat displaced civilians and took them into custody Monday night.

After Amazon And Facebook, Germany Opens Google Antitrust Probe

Germany’s antitrust regulator said Tuesday it has opened an investigation into Google over anti-competitive practices, wielding a new law that has already been used to scrutinise other US tech giants.

The Federal Cartel Office will investigate European units of Google in Germany and Ireland, as well as and its parent company, Alphabet, in California, it said in a statement.

The investigation has an “outstanding cross-market significance” due to the breadth of Google’s digital products, Cartel office head Andreas Mundt said.

“Google’s business model is very fundamentally built on the processing of its users’ data,” Mundt said. “Google has a strategic advantage here due to its established access to competitively relevant data.”

A key question in the probe was whether consumers “have sufficient choice over the use of their data by Google if they want to use Google services”, he said.

The investigation follows the application of a new law giving the authorities more power to rein in big tech companies, with similar proceedings launched recently against Amazon and Facebook.

Under the amendment to Germany’s competition law passed in January, the watchdog said it now has more power to “intervene earlier and more effectively” against big tech companies, rather than simply punishing them for abuses of their dominant market position.

The Federal Cartel Office said last week it is examining whether Amazon has “an almost unchallengeable position of economic power”, having already launched two traditional abuse control proceedings.

The watchdog has also employed its new powers to widen the scope of an investigation into Facebook over its integration of virtual reality headsets.

The push to tighten legislation comes as big tech companies are facing increasing scrutiny around the globe, including in the United States, where Google and Facebook are facing antitrust suits.

Nigeria’s floundering economy at crossroads, needs urgent attention

Nigeria may dive deeper into an economic crisis if government does not take urgent, deliberate steps to rescue it from a looming collapse.

This is because most of the country’s macroeconomic outcomes do not look good as confirmed by the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC) during their recent meeting with President Buhari.

At that meeting – the 6th since inauguration – PEAC advised the president on a myriad of issues, including worsening security environment and impact on food prices, poverty, unemployment, vulnerability, among others. The Council also emphasised the sluggish oil sector reforms, especially on the need to pass the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), which has dragged since 2008.

Africa’s largest economy exited recession in Q4 2020, albeit with very slim growth of 0.1%. The return to growth was driven by improvement in some non-oil sectors – including agriculture, solid minerals, ICT and Agric sector – as well as continued growth in the technology sector, rather than broad-based growth. But the domestic economy remains fragile with rising inflation, unemployment remains high and external account weak.

Rising prices of goods and services continues to be a worry, mainly driven by disruption to farming activities and inter-state trade as a result of worsening security conditions. In addition, the effect of depreciation in the exchange rate and the residual impact of border closure contributed to higher prices.

US Consumer Confidence Holds Steady In May – Report

American consumers were very upbeat about the current economic situation this month but more uncertain about the near-term outlook, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

With that mixed sentiment, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index held steady in May at 117.2 from 117.5 in April — a figure revised sharply lower but still the highest since March 2020, when the pandemic shuttered the US economy.

Respondents this month expressed more confidence about current business conditions and job prospects, and the present situation index jumped more than 12 points to 144.3, the report said.

However, the expectations index fell nearly nine points to 99.1, with consumers less optimistic about the chance of finding jobs and about the business environment in the coming six months.

Confidence had rebounded sharply in recent months, “However, consumers’ short-term optimism retreated, prompted by expectations of decelerating growth and softening labor market conditions in the months ahead,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.

Respondents’ more wary views also could reflect “rising inflation expectations and a waning of further government support,” Franco said in a statement.

As the US economic reopening has picked up speed, prices of many goods and services, especially those hardest hit by the Covid-19 shutdowns, have jumped, raising concerns of an inflationary spike.

However, central bankers at the Federal Reserve have repeatedly stressed that inflation pressures will be temporary and subside as the economy returns to normal and supply bottlenecks are resolved.

Franco said despite the concerns, “Overall, consumers remain optimistic, and confidence should remain resilient in the short term, as vaccination rates climb, Covid-19 cases decline further and the economy fully reopens.”

Nigeria’s Q1 GDP numbers show poverty still on the rise

There were no surprises in the latest GDP numbers for Nigeria published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Sunday.

Africa’s largest economy expanded at a tepid 0.51 percent in the first quarter of 2021, a rate too slow to reduce rising poverty or address the country’s record unemployment rate (33.3 percent as of the end of 2020) the highest globally after Namibia.

Growth in the three months ending March 2021 was slower than the 1.87percent growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020 but higher than 0.11percent recorded in the previous quarter (Q4 2020).

The economy may take another year to return to its pre-pandemic levels, according to the IMF’s estimates.

But even when it does, it will still be too slow to create opportunities for a population expanding at an annual rate of 2.6 percent. The economy has not grown above 2.5 percent since 2015.

Nigeria’s poverty rate has been rapidly rising so much so that in 2018 it overtook that of India to become the highest globally despite having only a fifth of India’s population, according to a report by Brookings Institution which said 87 million Nigerians lived below $1.90 a day.

Without reforms, Nigeria’s economy will continue to struggle, according to a motley crew of economic advisers to the President whose pieces of advice have gone largely unheeded since they were first assembled in 2019.

While the economy may have turned the corner since slipping into a recession last year, the oil sector is recovering but not yet out of the woods.

Oil GDP contracted by 2.21 per cent in Q1 compared to a contraction of 19.76 per cent in Q4 2020 and growth of 5.06 per cent in Q1 2020.
Non-oil GDP grew 0.79 per cent in Q1 compared to 1.69 per cent in Q4.

Optimism Over Reopening Economy Boosts US Stocks

Wall Street stocks were mostly higher early Tuesday, adding to the prior session’s momentum as optimism over the reopening economy offset concerns about inflation.

Analysts pointed to a pullback in the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note as an indicator that inflation worries may be ebbing. Anxiety that a jump in inflation could spark a sudden shift in Federal Reserve policy has weighed on the market in recent weeks.

Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare characterized the sentiment as a “tentative calm,” adding that “we’re still at base camp for a few more months, where high inflation prints can be rationalized on the basis of low base effects.”

About 20 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat at 34,382.21.

The broad-based S&P 500 added 0.1 percent at 4,201.12, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.4 percent t to 13,714.38.

Among individual companies, Moderna rose 4.2 percent after the drugmaker said trials had shown its Covid-19 vaccine is “highly effective” in adolescents aged 12-17, and the company would seek regulators’ approval in June.

Lordstown Motors tumbled 14.4 percent as the electric truck startup warned it would need to raise additional capital to meet its production targets.

Manufacturers say positive GDP growth masks sector’s true health

Manufacturers are saying the growth recorded by the sector in the first quarter of 2021 is not reflective of the obstacles in their path.

After three consecutive quarters of contraction in 2020, the sector expanded by 3.4 percent in the first quarter, according to data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Analysts say after the disruption occasioned by the COVIDe -19 pandemic, activities in the sector have dragged significantly due to challenges around rising production cost, supply cuts and foreign exchange shortages.

Segun Ajayi-Kadir, DG, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) noted that even though the sector’s positive GDP performance was indicative of a rebound from the lows of the pandemic, it still did not fully capture current realities in the sector.

Similarly, Muda Yusuf, director-general, Lagos Chamber of Commerce & Industry (LCCI) said the sector is still struggling to fully recover from the shocks of the pandemic. Yusuf said most foreign exchange dependent manufacturers have been hammered by FX shortages and exchange rate depreciation in the economy.

The FX volatility in Nigeria has been a nightmare for manufacturers. The naira was devalued twice in 2020 alone due to the dip in oil income which made foreign exchange scarce.

Foreign exchange shortages have been an ongoing challenge in Nigeria and led to the death of 54 manufacturing firms in 2016 alone. Many more have followed since then with manufacturers saying they get two to 10 percent of their dollar needs from the market even after waiting for 30-90 days.

This was affirmed by 82 percent of business managers in the Manufacturers CEOs Confidence Index (MCCI) for Q4’20 who complained that the rate at which FX is sourced and accessed has not improved adding that the unavailability of FX has negatively impacted the sector’s performance.

Experts are of the opinion that if issues around FX availability and accessibility are not addressed promptly, many of these companies will fold up which will consequently collapse the sector and affect job creation.

Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic emanated from China, the world’s manufacturing powerhouse and Nigeria’s largest trading partner especially for manufacturing inputs, this caused an abrupt stop in the supply of raw materials, goods, tools, and machinery for manufacturing companies which forced many of them to suspend business operations.

The cut in global supply forced manufacturers to source for inputs locally however this also posed a struggle on the back of rising insecurity which caused scarcity of raw materials.

With eye on fragile economic recovery, CBN holds benchmark interest rate at 11.5%

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Tuesday retained its benchmark interest rate at 11.5 percent after the two-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja due to slow economic recovery.

Analysts in the financial services sector had expected a hold following persistent uptick in inflation rate and weak growth.

Nigeria’s inflation declined to 18.12 percent in April 2021 from 18.17 percent in March 2021, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Real GDP grew by 0.51 percent in the first quarter of 2021 from 0.11 per cent in Q4 2020, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

In the fourth quarter of 2020, Nigerian economy sluggishly recovered from recession it slipped into in the second quarter (Q2) 2020 – after output contracted for the second consecutive quarters.

By vote of 10 Members of the committee the CBN also retained the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 27.5 percent, Liquidity Ratio at 30 percent as well as the Asymmetric Corridor around the MPR at +100/-700 basis points.

Razia Khan, managing director, Chief Economist, Africa and Middle East Global Research, Standard Chartered Bank, had said, “Still-high inflation and what could emerge as tentative FX market reforms will likely keep the CBN on hold at the May meeting.”

Given the fact that the rise in inflation has been due to cost-push factors rather than demand pull factors, Godwin Emefiele, governor of the CBN said the Monetary Policy Committee has placed greater weight on utilizing tools that would strengthen the nation’s productive base as a nation.

Mali in turmoil as strongman ousts transitional leaders

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Political turmoil in Mali deepened Tuesday as the country’s strongman pushed out transitional leaders who had been tasked with steering the return to civilian rule after a coup last August.

Assimi Goita, who headed a junta which seized power less than 10 months ago, said that President Bah Ndaw and Prime Minister Moctar Ouane had been stripped of their powers, and he promised elections in 2022.

The announcement marks the latest crisis to hit the vast, impoverished West African country, which is already struggling with a brutal jihadist insurgency.

Ndaw and Ouane have been heading an interim government that was installed in September under the threat of regional sanctions, with the declared aim of restoring full civilian rule within 18 months.

In a move that sparked widespread diplomatic anger, the pair were detained on Monday by army officers who were disgruntled by a government reshuffle, two senior officials told AFP.

In a statement read on public television, Goita said Ndaw and Ouane had been stripped of their duties for seeking to “sabotage” the transition, which would “proceed as normally.”

“The scheduled elections will be held in 2022,” he said.

Former colonial power France condemned what it called a “coup”, with Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian demanding the release of the president and prime minister.

Monday’s government reshuffle, designed to respond to growing criticism of the interim government, saw the military keep the strategic portfolios it controlled during the previous administration.

But two other coup leaders — ex-defence minister Sadio Camara and ex-security minister Colonel Modibo Kone — were replaced.

Colonel Goita, who holds the rank of vice president in the transitional government, accused Ndaw and Ouane of failing to consult him on the reshuffle.

“This kind of step testifies to the clear desire of the transitional president and prime minister to seek to breach the transitional charter,” he said, describing this as a “demonstrable intent to sabotage the transition”.

The transitional charter, a document largely drawn up by the colonels, sets down principles for underpinning Mali’s return to civilian rule.

The detention of Ndaw and Ouane sparked international condemnation, which included a rare joint statement by the United Nations, African Union (AU), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the European Union and the United States.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres tweeted a call for calm, and urged the leaders’ “unconditional release”.

AU head Felix Tshisekedi, who is also the president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, echoed the call, saying he “strongly condemned any action that aims to destabilise Mali”.

  • Brewing crisis –

Young military officers ousted the then president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, on August 18 after weeks of mass demonstrations over perceived government corruption and his handling of the jihadist insurgency.

ECOWAS, a 15-nation regional bloc, threatened sanctions, prompting the junta to hand power to a caretaker government that pledged to reform the constitution.

Goita was appointed as vice president of the caretaker administration, and the president, Ndaw, is a retired army officer.

But many have doubted whether the military-dominated government had the will — or the ability — to stage reforms on a short timescale.

Among other problems, the nation faces a major logistical and security challenge as swathes of territory are in the hands of jihadists.

  • Public discontent –

Monday’s reshuffle came amid signs of growing public discontent.

The opposition M5 movement — which spearheaded protests against Keita in 2020 — urged dissolving the interim government and demanded a “more legitimate” body.

On May 14, the government said it would appoint a new “broad-based” cabinet.

In the streets of Bamako, life seemed to continue as normal despite the ouster of Ndaw and Ouane, and many people interviewed by AFP said they were resigned to events.

“There was what happened in August and now we have this, but in real terms, it’s none of our business,” said Fatou Diakite, a doughnut seller wearing a purple head dress. “If I stop working, how do I live?”

Toumani Tangara, a 67-year-old former artilleryman, said “the military’s job is to fight. Let them go to the front, let them free (the north of the country) which is in the hands of terrorists! The rest is nonsense.”

Tahirou Bah, a civil society activist, attacked “putschist colonels…. (who) fight to the death for power” at a time when “80 percent of our country is under the control of terrorists, drug traffickers and bandits of every kind.”

But, he said, many people simply focussed on day-to-day living — “This is survival for many Malians.”

Tigrayan peacekeepers seek Sudan asylum, fear Ethiopia return

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Peacekeepers formerly posted to Darfur and hailing from Ethiopia’s conflict-hit Tigray region are requesting asylum in Sudan for fear of “torture” and “ethnic cleansing” back home, they have told correspondents.

The personnel were due to be repatriated in line with a withdrawal from Sudan of the joint United Nations-African Union mission in Darfur(UNAMID), after its mandate ended on December 31.

But the UN said earlier this month around 120 former peacekeepers had sought “international protection”.

AFP spoke to several of these Tigrayan peacekeepers at Um Gargour camp in eastern Sudan, where they have found interim sanctuary.

Halka Haqous, 47, a commander of the group that requested asylum, said he did not want to be repatriated “because of discrimination and ethnic cleansing in Tigray” region in northern Ethiopia.

He blamed Ethiopia’s government for the conflict, which erupted in early November, when the country’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent troops to detain and disarm leaders of the regional ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Abiy, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, said the move came in response to TPLF attacks on federal army camps.

While he vowed the conflict would be brief, fighting continues and world leaders are warning of humanitarian catastrophe.

Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced from their homes and over 60,000 fled into Sudan.

Rights groups have repeatedly alleged that Eritrean troops, operating in support of federal Ethiopian forces in Tigray, have perpetrated atrocities against civilians.

“All of the families from Tigray have been displaced,” said 40-year-old officer Arqawi Mahari.

“I don’t know where my father and mother are. A lot of rapes and other horrible crimes have been committed.”

“We are ethnic Tigrayans, that’s why they (Ethiopian troops) were oppressing us and telling us we were working for the TPLF,” Ferwini, 29, a peacekeeper who provided her first name only, told AFP.

“If I go back to Ethiopia they would kill me or torture me – that’s why I’ve asked for asylum in Sudan,” she added.

An Ethiopian military spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment Tuesday.

Abiy’s government has said it is committed to investigating allegations of atrocities in Tigray, and has denied claims it is discriminating against Tigrayans.

Sudan meanwhile is locked in disputes with Addis Ababa over a contentious border zone, and Ethiopia’s construction of a massive hydro-electric project on the Blue Nile.

Downstream Sudan and Egypt see the dam as a major threat to their water supply.