Diesel Breaks £2 A Litre In UK For The First Time

UK diesel crossed a threshold no motorist wanted to see: 200.01p a litre on average, the first time past £2. Filling an average family car now costs £110, nearly £32 more than before the US–Iran war began. And the price that has landed may be the last comfortable one — because Washington is considering banning its diesel exports.

The numbers

The RAC reported record diesel at 200.01p on Friday, after 199.33p earlier in the week, beating the 199.09p peak set in June 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Diesel is up around 59p a litre — close to 40% — since the end of February. Unleaded averages 174.71p, about 42p higher than at the war’s start, putting a petrol tank at roughly £96. Head of policy Simon Williams called it “a pump price threshold that no-one wanted to cross,” adding prices show “no signs of slowing.” He noted petrol is “higher than we would expect,” suggesting some retailers are cross-subsidising to hold diesel slightly lower.

Why the supply is tight

This is not only the Middle East. Scarcity has been “exacerbated” by the Russian export ban and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, which structurally removed diesel output from global markets well before Iran escalated. The UK is unusually exposed: over half its diesel is imported, and 31% of those imports come from the US — precisely the supply Washington is threatening to restrict. One estimate puts UK import cover at around 42 days, with warnings the litre could head toward £2.50 if a ban lands.

Washington’s pressure

President Trump has threatened to restrict diesel exports; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues US farmers, truckers and businesses “should not be left carrying the burden.” The timing is transparent: US midterms on 3 November, with inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s target and Americans facing record diesel above $6.50 a gallon last month. Energy columnist Javier Blas described the American campaign as “very intense.” “The US needed a quid pro quo and they created it,” he said, noting Washington may also ask Europe to release reserves. In Brussels, France proposed member states release 50 million barrels. Blas’s advice: release no more than a third — beyond half, “very vulnerable” if conflicts worsen.

Why a ban could backfire

Dan Brouillette, former US energy secretary, told BBC Radio 4’s Today an export ban is unlikely to hold prices down. The US refines more than it consumes, so blocking exports fills storage; once full, “you begin to shut down the refining production,” and “over a period of time, prices will continue to rise again.” He warned other exporting nations would follow. David Fyfe of Argus Media said removing more than a million barrels a day would trigger a bidding war among Latin American and European buyers, inflate global freight, food and industrial costs, and “feed inflation back into the global economy.” His verdict on the reputational hit: “At a stroke, the US’s reputation as a reliable supplier of energy to the world would be shot.”

Downing Street’s answer

Transport Minister Keir Mather called UK diesel supply “robust” and “resilient,” citing diverse sources and work with the International Energy Agency. “People shouldn’t be concerned about shortages,” he said, noting the fuel duty freeze remains in place. Chancellor John Healey is reported “concerned.” Williams’ prescription is more direct: cut fuel duty further or reduce VAT in October’s budget. Tesco has already moved, offering 8p off a litre — the market’s clearest signal that retailers know how hot this issue has become.