Israelis are voting in a closely contested election that could reshape the country’s political leadership, with incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a strong challenge from former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.
The election has become a major test of public confidence in Netanyahu’s leadership, with national security, democratic institutions and the future direction of Israeli politics dominating the campaign.
Polling published on Friday suggests Netanyahu and Eisenkot are running almost neck-and-neck. However, projections indicate that neither political bloc is on course to secure the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority, raising the possibility of prolonged negotiations over the formation of a new government.
Turnout has reportedly reached its highest level since 1981, reflecting the significance of an election widely viewed as one of the most consequential in Israel’s recent political history.
Netanyahu’s Leadership Under Pressure
Netanyahu, one of Israel’s longest-serving political leaders, is seeking another term after a campaign marked by criticism of his government’s handling of security and growing concerns about democratic institutions.
Opposition parties have repeatedly questioned the government’s response to the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, which killed approximately 1,200 people in Israel, according to the figures cited in the report. Another 251 people were taken hostage to Gaza.
The opposition has called for an independent commission of inquiry into the security failures surrounding the attacks. Netanyahu has resisted the proposal, arguing that such an investigation would be biased against him.
He has, however, built his campaign around national security, pointing to Israel’s military operations across the Middle East and his relationship with United States President Donald Trump.
Netanyahu also faces an ongoing corruption trial, with charges he denies, alongside renewed controversy over proposed judicial reforms that previously triggered mass protests.
Eisenkot Leads the Opposition’s Push for Change
Eisenkot, leader of the newly formed Yashar Party, is emerging as the central figure in the coalition of parties seeking to remove Netanyahu from office.
The so-called change bloc brings together politicians with differing ideological positions, united largely by their opposition to another Netanyahu-led government.
The group includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman and left-leaning former general Yair Golan.
Despite their differences, the bloc faces the challenge of converting its electoral support into a workable governing coalition.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, is relying on support from right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that formed his current governing alliance.
The election outcome will therefore depend not only on the number of seats won by individual parties but also on their willingness to negotiate and cooperate after the results are announced.
Military Conscription Adds to Political Tensions
Another major issue is military conscription, particularly the exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jewish men engaged in full-time religious study.
Netanyahu’s government has faced criticism for failing to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring ultra-Orthodox men to be conscripted, an issue that has become increasingly divisive as Israeli soldiers and reservists have been called up for military operations.
The dispute places Netanyahu’s coalition under pressure, as ultra-Orthodox parties remain important political allies while opposition to exemptions continues to fuel public debate over fairness and national responsibility.
Gaza and the Palestinian Question
The future of Gaza and Israel’s approach to the Palestinians also remain significant, although the leading candidates share some hardline positions on security.
Eisenkot has pledged to end Hamas rule in Gaza within 18 months, either through a US-led peace initiative or military action if necessary.
Israeli military strikes have continued despite a ceasefire agreement, with Israel saying it targets Hamas operatives. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry has reported more than 74,000 deaths since the war began. The figures are considered reliable by the United Nations, although they are reported by the health authority in Gaza.
Israel has also faced growing international criticism over its conduct of the war, contributing to strained relations with several international partners.
On the occupied West Bank, Eisenkot broadly supports Israeli settlements but has called for action against extremist settlers responsible for attacks on Palestinians. He has also discussed arrangements for Palestinian autonomy under continued Israeli security control.
The prospect of an independent Palestinian state existing alongside Israel — the longstanding two-state solution — has become increasingly marginal in mainstream Israeli political debate.
Could Arab Parties Determine the Outcome?
Arab political parties could play a decisive role if neither major bloc secures enough seats to form a government.
Arab citizens account for roughly one-fifth of Israel’s population, and their political representatives could potentially influence coalition negotiations or support a minority government.
However, cooperation remains uncertain. Most leading Jewish parties have ruled out formal partnerships with Arab parties, while Lieberman has rejected the prospect of supporting an Eisenkot-led minority government.
These political red lines could complicate efforts to reach the parliamentary threshold of 61 seats.
Coalition Talks Could Prolong the Uncertainty
Under Israel’s proportional representation system, governments are formed through coalitions, making negotiations between parties essential to securing power.
Even after votes are counted, the outcome may remain uncertain as party leaders negotiate over cabinet positions, policy concessions and possible alliances.
The counting of soldiers’ and reservists’ ballots could also affect the final distribution of seats, with some votes not expected to be counted until after election night.
If neither bloc can form a viable government and no minority administration emerges, Israel could face another election.
The country experienced repeated political deadlock between 2019 and 2022, when five elections were held as parties struggled to establish stable governing coalitions.
As Israelis cast their ballots, the immediate question is who can secure the numbers to govern. The longer-term question is whether the next government can address the country’s security challenges, domestic divisions and growing debate over its democratic institutions.
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