Israel Election: Netanyahu Ahead, But Fails To Secure Majority

Israeli media forecast 54 seats for Netanyahu’s right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc against 47 for Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition, reversing exit polls that earlier favoured the challenger. Turnout hit 77.7%.

Israelis voted on Tuesday in an election both camps framed as a turning point, and by Wednesday morning the result was the one neither side wanted to predict: Netanyahu ahead, but short of governing outright.The numbers moved all night.

Exit polls from Israel’s main broadcasters initially gave the opposition the edge, with Channel 13 and Channel 12 projecting Gadi Eisenkot’s camp at 52 or 53 seats against about 50 for Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc, per AFP, Euronews and the Canadian Press.

Revised projections then swung the other way: Israel’s Channel 12 was reporting 52 seats for the Netanyahu bloc and 49 for Eisenkot.

With around 70.7 per cent of votes tallied on Wednesday morning, Israeli media forecasts reported by Reuters put the right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox bloc at 54 seats against 47 for the opposition, with parties representing Arab citizens on 19. Likud was projected as the largest single party at between 24 and 27 seats, depending on the outlet.

Why he survives anyway

A majority in the 120-seat Knesset is 61 seats. Neither camp reached it, but the arithmetic favours Netanyahu’s survival rather than his removal. His bloc lost the majority it held, yet opposition parties from centre-left to hard-right would need Arab-list support to unseat him — an arrangement many have ruled out.

Even if that barrier were crossed, Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker capacity during coalition talks, or until a new election is called, potentially next year. Turnout was 77.7 per cent, the highest in more than two decades and roughly seven points above 2022, according to France 24.

Arab citizens, more than a fifth of the population, turned out heavily, with several citing open racism in Netanyahu’s cabinet, which includes a party leader convicted of inciting racial hatred.Netanyahu’s claim. Speaking to Likud supporters in Jerusalem after 3 a.m. local time, the prime minister called for “a strong, right-wing national government” and claimed a decisive mandate among Jewish voters.

He raised renewed joint military action against Iran with US President Donald Trump: “Israel faces a singular historical opportunity, together with our partner President Trump, to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all.

But ulterior motives must not divert us from this sacred mission.” Trump, speaking at a campaign stop in Texas, said Netanyahu had done “very well” because of his endorsement, adding, “It might be winning or tie. The tie is sort of considered a win in that case because it’s a big chess match.”The opposition’s warning.

Eisenkot acknowledged Netanyahu was still in office as caretaker but said he had lost public support, urging him to retire from politics. He then addressed the security establishment directly: “Remember that you serve only the state and the interests of Israel’s citizens. Stand firm in the face of any attempt to challenge you.

You have my unequivocal backing

Netanyahu, do not dare use Israel’s security for your political needs.”The deeper shift. This was the first Israeli election since Hamas-led attacks killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages, according to Israeli tallies, triggering wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Reuters reports that the Gaza campaign flattened the territory and killed 74,000 Palestinians, leaving Israel increasingly isolated internationally, including in the United States. Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges he calls absurd, and faces Israeli corruption charges he describes as an establishment plot.

The clearest outcome is ideological

Nearly all Jewish parties now share Netanyahu’s rejection of an eventual independent Palestinian state, the basis of internationally endorsed peace efforts since the 1990s. The centre-left that dominated Israel’s first decades and negotiated land-for-peace is now a small fringe. Netanyahu returned to power in 2009 and has held it since, except for 18 months when a fragile coalition briefly levered him out after four inconclusive elections in two years.“We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here,” said Faten Gattas, a Joint List candidate, as the alliance’s headquarters in Nazareth erupted at the Arab parties’ record showing.