Though a ceasefire was reached at the end of June, hostilities between Israel and Iran have hardly cooled. Instead, behind-the-scenes military developments suggest that both nations are bracing for future conflict, and the wider region remains on edge.
Officials in Tehran and Jerusalem refer to the situation as entering a “new phase,” marked by mutual deterrence, fragile and influenced by shifting global dynamics.
Israel is currently scaling up its defense capabilities and increasing output of its advanced Arrow missile systems. Meanwhile, Iran is rebuilding its military posture and remains defiant about halting its nuclear ambitions even if doing so risks a new military confrontation.
Sources within Israel’s defense establishment say Iran is working closely with China to obtain sophisticated air defense systems and fighter aircraft. These moves appear to be part of Tehran’s preparations for a retaliatory strike in response to Israel’s June 13 surprise attack.
On July 20, Israel’s top military official, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, stated that the previous conflict with Iran was only a single stage in a much longer confrontation. He emphasized, “We are now entering a new chapter based on the achievements of the operation we disrupted Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and we must remain vigilant.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz, speaking two days later, reinforced the urgency of the situation and warned of a strong possibility that clashes will soon resume.
Following a high-level assessment involving senior military leadership, Israeli defense planners began shaping a broad strategy designed to prevent Iran from reviving its nuclear program. This includes boosting Arrow missile output and maintaining heightened readiness across its air defense systems, Iron Dome and David’s Sling among them.
At the same time, Iranian leadership is delivering clear messages. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared, “Iran will not retreat from its nuclear program” and warned that “any Israeli attack will be met with painful retaliation targeting central Israel.”
In a July 22 interview with Al-Jazeera, Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran has no interest in initiating war but will act to defend itself decisively if provoked. He added that Iran’s nuclear pursuits are entirely peaceful and align with international regulations.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi, also speaking on July 22, made clear that Iran will continue enriching uranium, despite damage to its facilities caused by U.S. military action earlier in June.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who played a key role in securing the ceasefire, responded to Arakchi’s remarks with a stern warning on July 22, stating that the U.S. is prepared to strike Iran’s nuclear infrastructure again if there is any indication of resumed development. His statement came mere hours after Arakchi’s comments, underscoring Washington’s hardline stance.
The most recent escalation between Israel and Iran lasted just under two weeks from June 13 to June 24 but saw significant military engagements on both sides.
Israel launched strikes on nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, destroyed missile production facilities, and executed targeted killings of senior Iranian military and scientific personnel.
In response, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on strategic Israeli locations, including energy infrastructure, defense installations, and intelligence assets.
Although a ceasefire was arranged through American mediation, it came without any formal agreement or mechanism for monitoring compliance, leaving both sides in a tenuous pause rather than a true peace.
Israeli officials believe that what lies ahead is a drawn-out conflict, temporarily subdued but far from resolved. They assert that Iran, still reeling from the blows sustained in June, is regrouping and seeking a moment for calculated retaliation most likely through an unexpected assault.
To Israeli defense experts, the current ceasefire is merely a temporary hold on an inevitable continuation of hostilities. Their focus remains on obstructing Iran’s nuclear ambitions through sustained pressure, military, diplomatic, and covert.
Since the ceasefire began, a number of unexplained fires and blasts have hit infrastructure across Iran. On July 23, Iranian sources claimed they suspect Israel was behind these incidents.
There is, at present, no formal peace structure or diplomatic process in place. Trust is absent, and lines of communication are non-existent. Both nations are on alert, and a single event, a cyberattack, a political assassination could once again spark widespread conflict.
Israeli intelligence suggests that covert operations inside Iran are ongoing. According to officials, preparations are in place to intercept any Iranian offensive, should the calm shatter.