Though a ceasefire was reached at the end of June, hostilities between Israel and Iran have hardly cooled. Instead, behind-the-scenes military developments suggest that both nations are bracing for future conflict, and the wider region remains on edge.

Officials in Tehran and Jerusalem refer to the situation as entering a “new phase,” marked by mutual deterrence, fragile and influenced by shifting global dynamics.

Israel is currently scaling up its defense capabilities and increasing output of its advanced Arrow missile systems. Meanwhile, Iran is rebuilding its military posture and remains defiant about halting its nuclear ambitions even if doing so risks a new military confrontation.

Sources within Israel’s defense establishment say Iran is working closely with China to obtain sophisticated air defense systems and fighter aircraft. These moves appear to be part of Tehran’s preparations for a retaliatory strike in response to Israel’s June 13 surprise attack.

On July 20, Israel’s top military official, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, stated that the previous conflict with Iran was only a single stage in a much longer confrontation. He emphasized, “We are now entering a new chapter based on the achievements of the operation we disrupted Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and we must remain vigilant.”

Defense Minister Israel Katz, speaking two days later, reinforced the urgency of the situation and warned of a strong possibility that clashes will soon resume.

Following a high-level assessment involving senior military leadership, Israeli defense planners began shaping a broad strategy designed to prevent Iran from reviving its nuclear program. This includes boosting Arrow missile output and maintaining heightened readiness across its air defense systems, Iron Dome and David’s Sling among them.

At the same time, Iranian leadership is delivering clear messages. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared, “Iran will not retreat from its nuclear program” and warned that “any Israeli attack will be met with painful retaliation targeting central Israel.”

In a July 22 interview with Al-Jazeera, Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran has no interest in initiating war but will act to defend itself decisively if provoked. He added that Iran’s nuclear pursuits are entirely peaceful and align with international regulations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi, also speaking on July 22, made clear that Iran will continue enriching uranium, despite damage to its facilities caused by U.S. military action earlier in June.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who played a key role in securing the ceasefire, responded to Arakchi’s remarks with a stern warning on July 22, stating that the U.S. is prepared to strike Iran’s nuclear infrastructure again if there is any indication of resumed development. His statement came mere hours after Arakchi’s comments, underscoring Washington’s hardline stance.

The most recent escalation between Israel and Iran lasted just under two weeks from June 13 to June 24 but saw significant military engagements on both sides.

Israel launched strikes on nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, destroyed missile production facilities, and executed targeted killings of senior Iranian military and scientific personnel.

In response, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on strategic Israeli locations, including energy infrastructure, defense installations, and intelligence assets.

Although a ceasefire was arranged through American mediation, it came without any formal agreement or mechanism for monitoring compliance, leaving both sides in a tenuous pause rather than a true peace.

Israeli officials believe that what lies ahead is a drawn-out conflict, temporarily subdued but far from resolved. They assert that Iran, still reeling from the blows sustained in June, is regrouping and seeking a moment for calculated retaliation most likely through an unexpected assault.

To Israeli defense experts, the current ceasefire is merely a temporary hold on an inevitable continuation of hostilities. Their focus remains on obstructing Iran’s nuclear ambitions through sustained pressure, military, diplomatic, and covert.

Since the ceasefire began, a number of unexplained fires and blasts have hit infrastructure across Iran. On July 23, Iranian sources claimed they suspect Israel was behind these incidents.

There is, at present, no formal peace structure or diplomatic process in place. Trust is absent, and lines of communication are non-existent. Both nations are on alert, and a single event, a cyberattack, a political assassination could once again spark widespread conflict.

Israeli intelligence suggests that covert operations inside Iran are ongoing. According to officials, preparations are in place to intercept any Iranian offensive, should the calm shatter.

American and Chinese delegates continued their second day of trade discussions in Stockholm on Tuesday, aiming to ease years-long economic friction and prevent further escalation in the tariff dispute between the two economic giants.

Although a major breakthrough isn’t expected immediately, insiders suggest that both nations may agree to another 90-day pause on implementing new tariffs, a continuation of the temporary relief granted in mid-May. These discussions could also set the stage for a possible high-level meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later in the year, although Trump publicly dismissed any active pursuit of such a meeting.

Talks kicked off on Monday at Rosenbad, the official premises of Sweden’s prime minister. The discussions reportedly stretched over five hours, but both teams remained silent afterward. On Tuesday morning, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was spotted returning to the venue following a separate engagement with Sweden’s prime minister. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng was also seen entering the meeting space.

Beijing has until August 12 to finalize a long-term solution on tariffs with the current U.S. administration. This follows tentative compromises reached in May and June, aimed at easing the tit-for-tat tariff battle and the suspension of rare earth mineral exports.

Failure to strike a deal could destabilize international trade once again, with dormant tariffs set to snap back into place, reaching extreme levels that many experts say could effectively freeze bilateral commerce.

These talks come just after the U.S. finalized a major trade agreement with the European Union, instituting a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the U.S., as well as concluding a separate deal with Japan. While the EU deal brought short-term relief, it sparked backlash in parts of Europe. France criticized the agreement as a “submission,” and Germany warned of potentially severe economic consequences.

Analysts note that China holds considerable strategic power in the global supply of rare earths and specialized magnets essential for industries ranging from defense systems to basic vehicle parts. In contrast to the EU, China doesn’t depend on the U.S. for defense alliances, allowing it more flexibility in how it approaches prolonged negotiations.

“China is well aware of its strong negotiating position, as could clearly be seen in the temporary escalation observed in April,” one economist explained.

“But over Europe always hangs the Damocles sword of the U.S. withdrawing its security guarantee, and that is why the EU did not escalate the situation like China did.”

Reports emerged suggesting that the U.S. has temporarily relaxed restrictions on exporting certain technologies to China in an effort to keep the negotiation environment stable and possibly facilitate a future meeting between both presidents.

Trump, however, refuted any intention to initiate such a meeting. “This is not correct, I am not SEEKING anything! I may go to China, but it would only be at the invitation of President Xi, which has been extended. Otherwise, no interest!” he wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday.

Earlier rounds of negotiations held in Geneva and London during May and June had concentrated on reducing harsh retaliatory tariffs and restoring trade flow in key sectors particularly rare earth exports from China and certain high-end tech goods restricted by the U.S.

The broader issues remain unchanged: Washington continues to object to what it sees as China’s state-supported export-heavy economic model, which it argues distorts global trade. Beijing, on the other hand, accuses the U.S. of weaponizing national security concerns to block technological growth in China.

Bessent has previously signaled interest in another extension of the truce and reiterated the U.S. goal of urging China to focus more on boosting domestic consumption rather than relying on exports, an objective American leaders have long advocated for.

A man carrying a high-powered rifle unleashed deadly gunfire inside a Manhattan high-rise building Monday, claiming four lives before turning the weapon on himself. The building, located in Midtown, is known for housing the NFL’s headquarters and several top-tier financial firms.

Among those tragically killed was a 36-year-old NYPD officer originally from Bangladesh. Mayor Eric Adams paid tribute to him, calling the fallen officer a “true blue” hero. He had served on the police force for just over three years.

Officials have not released detailed information about the remaining victims, who include two male individuals and one female. A fifth person, another man, remains hospitalized in critical condition and is currently “fighting for his life,” the mayor stated.

Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch confirmed the shooter was 27-year-old Shane Tamura, a resident of Las Vegas with a known history of mental health issues. Tamura had reportedly driven across the country to New York shortly before carrying out the attack.

Authorities believe he acted independently. So far, no clear reason has been identified for the shooting, Tisch explained during a press briefing held later that night.

“Pure evil came to the heart of our city and struck innocent people and one of our police officers who were protecting those people,” said Patrick Hendry, leader of the Police Benevolent Association, during the briefing.

The officer who lost his life, Didarul Islam, leaves behind two children and a wife expecting their third. He had been stationed at the building as part of an NYPD deployment program that assigns uniformed officers to commercial locations for security purposes.

The rampage began in the skyscraper’s ground-level lobby during the busy evening commute, before the shooter proceeded to the 33rd floor where a corporate office is located by elevator. There, he shot himself in the chest, bringing the horrifying event to a close, according to Tisch.

A photo allegedly shared by law enforcement showing the suspect entering the premises with a firearm was widely circulated online. Authorities say their preliminary review of his record turned up no notable criminal background.

The high-rise at 345 Park Avenue is occupied by several major finance-sector organizations, including global firms and the National Football League’s main office.

A heavy law enforcement presence swarmed the area not long after the violence erupted.

“I just saw a lot of commotion and cops and people screaming,” said Russ McGee, 31, who was at a nearby gym when chaos broke out.

Another witness, 38-year-old Kyle Marshall, was working at an office near the scene when he received a message from his mother, warning him of an active shooter nearby. “Then she texted me the address, and I was, like, ‘Oh my God. That’s right next door to my building,'” he recounted.

Marshall said police locked down his office building until well into the evening. Though he lives in the San Francisco Bay Area, he regularly travels to New York for business.

“It doesn’t make me feel less safe to be in Manhattan,” he remarked. “The police responded quickly.”

Federal investigators were also dispatched from the FBI’s New York division to assist with the situation.