Campaigning for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election officially begins on Wednesday, setting the stage for a highly competitive contest expected to focus heavily on the economy, cost of living, insecurity and the impact of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms.
The election, scheduled for January 16, 2027, is expected to feature a partial repeat of the 2023 presidential contest, with President Bola Tinubu again seeking re-election against major opposition figures including former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other candidates.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, enters the campaign season amid persistent economic challenges and insecurity. While Tinubu’s administration has implemented major economic reforms since taking office in 2023, the policies have also contributed to significant pressure on households and businesses.
“The economy is the biggest issue. That’s the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country, and it continues to affect security and development concerns,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of the Nigeria politics newsletter The Bellwether.
One of Tinubu’s most significant policies has been the removal of the fuel subsidy, which had kept petrol prices artificially lower for years but placed a heavy financial burden on government finances.
The reform has received support from some economists and investors, but it has also contributed to a sharp increase in living costs. The naira lost significant value, while inflation rose to as high as 34 per cent before headline inflation later eased to 15.4 per cent in July.
The economic difficulties have also compounded an existing poverty problem. According to the World Bank, more than 60 per cent of Nigerians now live below the poverty line, compared with about 40 per cent in 2019.
Security is another major concern heading into the election.
Violence has increased in parts of the country since 2024, according to Ladd Serwat, a senior Africa analyst at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).
He attributed the deterioration to “driven by the spread and intensification of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria” as well as increased conflict in Borno State, the centre of the country’s long-running jihadist insurgency.
For the opposition, however, presenting a strong alternative to the ruling APC could prove challenging.
“the opposition has been too mired in internal and legal issues to really articulate a difference” between their policies and Tinubu’s, Adekaiyaoja said.
For some voters, the economy remains the defining issue.
“The most important issues for me are the economy and cost of living,” said civil servant Afolayan Abdullahi, 42, who said he intended to vote for Tinubu.
2023 Rivals Return To The Presidential Race
Tinubu enters the campaign with significant political advantages. His All Progressives Congress controls the National Assembly and holds 31 of Nigeria’s 36 governorships.
The 2027 presidential election is expected to partly revisit the political battle of 2023, when Tinubu defeated Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.
Tinubu won 36.6 per cent of the vote in that election, while Atiku secured 29 per cent and Obi received 25 per cent.
Rabiu Kwankwaso, who obtained roughly six per cent in 2023, has now joined forces with Obi as his running mate, adding another dimension to the opposition’s strategy.
However, insecurity and the cost of participating in elections could affect voter turnout.
“Nigeria is not safe, terrorists, kidnappers, bandits everywhere,” said Becky Alegbe, a 28-year-old street vendor in Abuja.
Although she is registered to vote in her home village in Edo State, she said, “for me to take the risk to travel… I will not take that,” citing rising transportation costs and concerns about vote-buying.
Voter participation was already low in 2023, when turnout stood at just 27 per cent.
Presidential Candidates Sign Peace Accord Ahead Of Campaigns
The formal start of campaigning comes shortly after President Tinubu, presidential candidates including Peter Obi, Omoyele Sowore and Donald Duke, among others, signed the National Peace Accord ahead of the 2027 elections.
The agreement was signed on Tuesday at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja.
The event brought together representatives of presidential candidates, governorship and National Assembly contestants, political party leaders, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman Joash Amupitan, Secretary to the Government of the Federation George Akume and other senior political figures.
The National Peace Committee organised the event as part of efforts to encourage peaceful political engagement before, during and after the elections. A second phase of the peace initiative is expected to take place after the polls.
Speaking ahead of the commencement of the campaign season, Peter Obi called for an election in which voters would have confidence that their ballots would determine the outcome.
“I don’t have any fear [going into next year’s election] except to say that, please, for the sake of the children of Nigeria, can we have an election where people’s votes will count?”
Obi also urged Nigerians to reject candidates or political parties that violate the principles contained in the peace agreement.
“Well, the punishment is that Nigerians should not vote for them,” he said when asked what the punishment should be for those who violate the agreement.
He called on politicians to “be exemplary” in their conduct as the election approaches.
“You can’t answer ‘His Excellency’ without being an excellent person,” Obi, 65, said. “So, the process that will make you answer ‘His Excellency’ should be excellent, and the only way to do it is to conduct yourself properly.”
President Tinubu was represented at the ceremony by SGF George Akume, who praised the National Peace Committee for sustaining its peace-building efforts since 2014.
The committee’s leadership includes former Head of State Abdulsalami Abubakar, Sultan of Sokoto Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar and Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah.
Tinubu also pointed to improvements in Nigeria’s electoral technology, particularly the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), arguing that the technology has strengthened the ability of voters to influence election outcomes.
He cited recent off-cycle elections in Anambra, Osun and Ekiti as examples of what he described as improvements in electoral transparency.
“Different parties won them, and local and foreign observers described them as free, credible, and transparent. When the process and outcome are manifestly transparent, we see less post-election litigation in our courts,” he said.
Tinubu added that “politicians are now more accountable to the people because votes count.”
With campaigning now underway, the 2027 presidential race is set to move from political positioning into a more direct battle for voters. The central questions are likely to include whether Nigerians believe Tinubu’s economic reforms are beginning to deliver results, how the opposition presents itself as a credible alternative, and whether insecurity and economic hardship will translate into stronger voter participation.
The election will also test the credibility of Nigeria’s electoral institutions, particularly their ability to address concerns around vote-buying, technology, accessibility, security and public confidence.
